Readers of this blog will know I’m a fan of Tesla. I bought the stock back in 2012 on a silly whim and it became a super-rare, super-lucky, super-unicorn purchase. Some of my shares are up 15,000%.
I expect Tesla’s future to be bright as the world moves to electric vehicles (EVs) and renewables, so I continue to hold the stock.
But this post is not about Tesla. It’s about my experience trying to buy an electric vehicle.
Our two daily drivers have almost 200,000 miles on them. And since we’ll soon have another driver in the household, I decided it was time to start looking for another vehicle. Since EVs are the future and I have solar panels (free fuel), I’m not considering anything but an EV. This may not be the best idea at the moment…
Tesla Store
Teslas are expensive, but since I like the company, I decided to start my search there.
I called Tesla to ask if I could take a test drive. The representative told me that currently Tesla is selling every car they make and there were none available to drive. This was slightly annoying, but since I’ve driven them before, it wasn’t a big deal.
Next, I stopped by a Tesla store to ask some questions. I won’t bore you with all of the details, but I have concerns about build quality and asked about it:
- Me: I’ve seen Teslas with some pretty bad body gap inconsistencies. Will Tesla fix them if I order one and it shows up like that?
- Tesla dude: Well, the robots assemble the cars and sometimes they aren’t perfect. If it’s a really bad issue, we’ll fix it, but generally no.
- Me <with some snark>: Are the robots drinking on the job? What’s going on there?
- Tesla dude: Haha.
- Me: This car costs $70,000 and I should accept build issues? Even my cheapo Mazda and Honda have consistent body gaps.
- Tesla dude: Well, the issue is that if we move a panel or door, it will create other issues.
The Model Y Long Range is premium priced, costing more than twice as much as its potentially better-built fuel-burning equivalents (RAV4 or CRV) and I should accept quality issues? Hmmm.
With that said, everyone I know who has a Tesla loves it to death. I also know that build issues are getting better.
The next car I considered was the Chevy Bolt. I know a couple of friends who one them and they like the car. But, all was is not well with GM…
Bolt Jolt
Dealing with Chevrolet was 10x more infuriating than Tesla. The salespeople were horrible:
- They know little about the product.
- They communicate very poorly.
- They’re vague on the pricing except for ominous hints of adjusting the price upward because of market conditions (the dealers that had them available wanted $5,000 to $10,000 over the sticker price).
- All dealers had silly add-ons to further gouge the customer. One egregious example was a “$199 nitrogen tire fill.” Even worse was a $750 protective coating. What bullsh*t.
So, I sent an email to Mary Barra, the CEO of GM. Here is most of what I wrote:
…while I have issues with Tesla’s quality, their direct-to-consumer/one-price purchase model is pretty great. Dealing with Chevrolet dealerships has been incredibly painful. I’ve been in contact with 5 different local dealerships:
- Salespeople won’t return phone calls or emails.
- They forget the model I was asking about.
- They won’t give me pricing.
- They know little about the product they’re selling.
I’ve only owned Japanese cars and I really looked forward to buying a Chevy for the first time, but this experience is making me look at Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan EVs.
Thanks!
Shortly after this email, I received a call from Chris on the Executive Resolution Team:
- Chris: Can you tell me about your experiences with our dealers?
- Me: They don’t communicate, they’re not honest, and the pricing is nuts.
- Chris: The Bolt is in demand and the dealerships are independent, so we have no control over them. We tell them that price gouging isn’t in their long-term interest as it doesn’t create a loyal customer. We also tell them that if we hear complaints, we may reduce their future allocation of cars. If I were you, I’d wait until the fall when we expect demand to have lessened.
- Me: I don’t share your enthusiasm about decreasing demand. You have a well-priced vehicle and with the upcoming EV incentive, I think they’ll be even harder to buy soon.
- Chris. Uh-huh. Yeah, yeah, sounds great.
It was clear that Chris wasn’t listening, so I impolitely said Bye and hung up the phone.
While Chris had said that they punish dealers by giving them less allocation, he never asked me which dealers I had these issues with. It was clear that Chris didn’t really care. It was all for show. Sigh. I’ll probably never buy a GM product.
Kias, Hyundais, And Mazdas! Oh My!
My friend K has an EV6, so I went to check it out. The EV6 had a minor body gap issue, but otherwise is a great car. However, there aren’t any available near me. Also, my friend K got a little screwed by the Kia dealership when they added a $1,000 “protective coating” and secretly buried the cost in the paperwork.
The Hyundai Ioniq 5 is super weird looking, but it’s supposed to be a great car. Again, good luck buying one. This is from the Hyundai website:
Our Mazda 5 (The Mindyvan) has been the best car we’ve ever owned. It has 198,000 miles on the clock and it’s never been in for a repair. So, my next thought was that I should look to see if Mazda had an EV offering. It turns out that Mazda does offer one, but it has horrible specs (100 miles of range?!??) and is also sold out.
Oof.
Random Thoughts
- Dealers are HORRIBLE, EVIL, and NASTY entities: I haven’t shopped for a car in 13 years. Not much has changed. Salespeople are dishonest and smarmy. The dealership model is flawed. Why put an antagonistic person between the product and the consumer? This is a very, very bad idea. Tesla does this part of its business perfectly.
- EVs are the real deal: EVs still command a premium price (batteries are hard to make), but economies of scale will soon triumph and this will no longer be the case. Also, consider that EVs are way cheaper to maintain and fuel. The upcoming tax credit will only make demand issues worse in the short term.
- Some traditional automakers will die this decade: Moving to EVs is not easy. Batteries are painful to produce and/or source. Also, dealers make most of their money servicing cars. How does a dealership make money when they sell a car that barely requires service?
At this point, I was confused, defeated, beaten down, and somewhat delirious. In my weakened state, I navigated over to the Tesla website and ordered a Model Y. It’s supposed to show up in January:
After the tax credit, the car will be $69,000. This is a LOT of money. The two cars Mindy and I bought new were both under $20,000 (2003 Honda Element and 2010 Mazda 5). The most expensive car I ever bought was an Acura NSX ($45,000):
It feels somewhat ridiculous that I paid $45,000 for my ultimate dream car and now I’m about to pay $69,000 for a nerd-mobile family hauler. What?!??
I’m not sure that I’ll actually buy the Tesla. If I cancel my order, I’d be out $250 and no more. Perhaps I’ll be able to figure out something else before that. Or…
Mazda 5 (The Mindyvan) FTW?!??
Our 2010 Mazda 5 Mindyvan has been a great car. The sliding doors don’t cooperate in the extreme cold. It has a rust spot. It’s noisy. It’s not pretty. But, it always starts and has never had an issue. I change the oil, rotate the tires, and put new sparkplugs in it. That’s it. Way to go Mazda!
The Element has received a new radiator and exhaust manifold, but has been great otherwise.
Since the Element and 5 are still doing OK, perhaps I’ll punt my EV dreams down the road for a while. Older Daughter won’t like the decision:
I don’t want to learn to drive a stick shift!!!
-Angry Older Daughter
But, she can just wait.
More EVs will be on the market soon. Manufacturers will ramp up their production volumes. Teslas will decrease in price as more competition shows up.
Perhaps the Mindyvan has a couple more years left in her?
What do you think? Do you own an EV? If so, which one and how do you like it?
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My next car will be an EV as well, but I worry about all the software in cars now. And also, the lack of standardization with battery form-factors… I want to know I can drive my new car for 3 decades. But recent history with technology has me worried that cars will adopt the phone/computer model, leaving us with huge paper weights in our garage every 5-10 years.
What concerns do you have about the software?
I’m not worried about batteries. Battery life in some of the early EVs like the Leaf was crap. I’d expect a Tesla battery to outlive the car. But yeah, it would be nice to know that a manufacturer would be able to support the car far into the future. It looks like there is a law that states a manufacturer has to support a car for 10 years: https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/14049/are-auto-manufacturers-required-under-us-federal-law-to-provide-parts-for-a-set#:~:text=Auto%20manufacturers%20are%20required%20by,the%20period%20of%2010%20years.
This reassures me. If my battery crapped out in 8 years, the replacement should be even better than the one my car originally came with.
Ugh it’s rough to read about the car-buying scene right now. I suppose if you want to learn about the product, the LAST place to go is where they try to convince you to buy it. On the bright side at least it’s never been easier to research everything first!
I looked HARD at a Mini Cooper SE last year. I love small cars (which seem to be fleeing the US at an alarming rate), 125mi range is fine for almost everything we do, the handling and torque would have been phenomenal, and with the tax break it would’ve set us back $24k for a base model. Between full-time telecommuting and five grocery stores within two miles, though, my wife and I don’t drive all that much. We ended up with a VW Golf in July ’21 and fill up the tank every five or six weeks. If we’re going to own a car for fifteen or twenty years and not even break six figures on the odometer, going electric makes little sense (especially considering battery degradation and range anxiety).
I like small cars too! In Germany, we say ID3s everywhere and they looked awesome! Of course, they’re not coming to America, the land of massive people haulers.
If we could’ve bought an ID3 for less than $35k last year my finger would be sprained to this day from clicking so hard on “BUY NOW”. What a rad little beastie!
I see dozens or hundreds of cars every time I go for a run and without fail, 90% of the pickup trucks have one person in the cab and zero items in the bed. To be fair the other 10% are jammed to the gills with laborers and stuffed full of equipment in the back. It feels like we’ve got our vehicle tax incentives and penalties all backwarded up.
I’m glad you share my enthusiasm about the ID3! I love little hot hatches!
“I see dozens or hundreds of cars every time I go for a run and without fail, 90% of the pickup trucks have one person in the cab and zero items in the bed.”
Same here. It’s crazy waste.
I loathe the auto buying process. I drove my last Vovlo until the wheels fell off. I now have a 2016 Tacoma, and am determined to get 300,000 miles out of it. When my wife wanted to buy her new car, a friend recommended an auto-broker. I had never heard of the service, and immediately thought – ohh, another benefit for the rich. I wonder how much this will cost? She called him up, told him exaclty what she wanted, and he found the car cheaper than we could find it. I searched and searched, and his pricing was still cheaper. There was no haggling, no hidden fees, and he had the car delivered to our house. I kept waiting for the catch, but it was a fantastic process. We are looking to buy an EV in 2 years, and there is no doubt I won’t use the broker.
Whoah, I’ve heard of auto brokers before, but it kinda fell off of my radar. Thanks for the tip!
My husband bought a 3 in March 2020 and had an issue with rear passenger window not lining up right when closed but Tesla fixed it. I bought my Y in Nov 2020 and declined two cars due to quality issues (smudged paint in areas, headliner dirty and falling down, body gaps) before accepting the third one. We love our cars but it’s tempting to sell the Y since it is currently worth 10k more than I bought for it at 2 years old!! I will say that having the Tesla repair guy come out to your house for minor fixes it is a lot nicer than when we take the Subaru into the dealer for repairs!
Oof, I’m sorry you had to decline twice, but good to hear that you love the cars now. Hopefully Tesla is in a better place!
The mobile repair is pretty awesome!
KIA EV6 owner here. Things have changed drastically since last week Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act. Only certain vehicles will now qualify for the $7,500 credit, Tesla and Chevy being big winners. See full list here: https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/inflation-reduction-act
If you are still interested in Kia or Hyundai, my recommendation is to call around. I bet you will be able to find a dealership that will do MSRP. Plus, now that incentive is no longer available, I bet a LOT or orders will be canceled and you will get your car much sooner. You may end up to pay $1-2 for some BS like “Winter Protection Package”, but that’s pretty much standard for any vehicle now, EV or not.
With Tesla opening Superchargers by the end of the year to all EVs, there is no compelling reason to overpay for a Tesla any longer. Don’t get me wrong, Teslas are great but you are overpaying close to $20K.
I don’t believe prices will come down…the secondary market will cool off eventually (I can sell my EV6 for profit) but new cars are going going up in price. Look at the Model Y and its trajectory…
How long have you had your EV6 and how do you like it?
I tend to agree about overpaying for the Tesla, but I’m also curious about FSD. I’m not yet convinced that Tesla will figure it out, but the software seems to be moving in the right direction.
I had it for 2 months now. Initially, I was going to purchase an ID.4 but VW just can’t get their #%$% together, so after waiting for 6 months with zero updates, I jumped ship.
It’s been a great vehicle so far…zero problems in the first couple of months. It’s roomy enough for family trips but also handles and drives like a sports car when you want to go for a joy ride (Sports mode FTW). I lucked out and got it before the $7,500 incentive went away, I don’t know if I would recommend it now without it. Putting availability/wait time aside, I would probably go with Cadilac Lyriq or Ford F150 Lighting now.
Unfortunately, I have to commute almost 80 miles a day, 3-4 days a week and with the gas prices, I used to spend $80 a week. Now I can charge for free at work and off-peak hours at home, so my weekly “gas” bill is about….$1 now.
$1! That’s AWESOME!
I’m glad the EV6 is working out for you! Now, if Kia would just make more of them for everyone else!
Personally I’m not sold on the reliability of EV’s just yet. They’re definitely the future, but the future still needs some work. Just go talk to the guys who actually work on Tesla’s and have to fix the problems. They aren’t easy to work on mechanically.
“EV’s are simplier” is a common phrase I hear from all the EV nerds all the time, but the reality seems to be that they’re in the shop just as often.
Just look at Consumer Report’s reliability raitings: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/consumer-reports-2021-auto-reliability-survey-how-tesla-evs-fared.html
That pretty much says it all.
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I have a 2016 Nissan Leaf that I bought used in the summer of 2020. It’s range is between 90-100 miles. It is a great car do errands around town. I was lucky to buy it before the used car prices were too high and low inventory. I had been wanting an EV and Tesla (even used) prices were too high. Speaking of used Tesla’s – did you look into buying one of those? I do wish I could get the Leaf’s batteries swapped out to get longer range (150 miles +). Good Luck in your EV purchase hunt. I am also looking forward to seeing photos/videos of the renovation of the house you just bought.
Deb!
Yeah, used prices tend to be higher than new because of wait times.
I start work on the new place tomorrow! Videos soon!
The Bolt is your best deal. They are all getting new batteries which alone makes it a great deal but it’s the best bang for your buck with 250 mile range (with the new free battery). We paid $23,000 for a 2017 last year for the top level trim and we love it.
The sales people have no clue about electric cars- you have to do your own research. My husband taught the salespeople a few things, haha. But anyway, we ended up using shift.com which delivers to you and it was a pretty good experience.
Our other car is a 2009 prius so we are due for another car and had our eyes on an ionic 5 but now unsure given the new tax laws requiring it to be built in the US for the tax credit. I think we’ll just evaluate when our Prius has another major issue.
Wow, 23K was a pretty great deal. I’ve never heard of shift.com, but will check it out.
The one big knock on Bolt is its subpar charging speed for Level 3 (50kW). No EV car sold in 2022 should be charged that slow. Compared to Kia/Hyundai that are built on 800-volt architecture and can charge as fast as 350kW, that’s not the vehicle I want to own long-term.
Other than that, yes, it’s a great bargain. Especially given the reduction in price and being able to qualify for $7,500 credit again.
Most people are charging their car in their garage at nighttime, so this is really not an issue for most of the population (average commute in America is something like 30 minutes, so you could drive this all week and not charge it at all).
It could be a little annoying for a road trip but you’re talking 30 minutes vs 15 minutes. We took a recent road trip around 260 miles in one day and charged up once on the road. We just went to chipotle as a pit stop for dinner.
I still stand by that this is the best deal considering its long range and price point.
It absolutely is the best deal. Now, I just wish GM would make more of them!
The slow charge rate means that I won’t be taking this car on a road trip to California, but it would be great for all of my local driving.
We bought a used 2016 Leaf in spring 2019. ~14k miles for ~$15k, if memory serves. Lowish range but it serves all of our needs in/ around town and our second car is a hybrid that works great for trips. We’ve been driving the Leaf almost exclusively outside of longer trips, and even with electricity prices up 2x in our area this year, it costs about 1/2-1/3 to “fill” versus the hybrid (adjusting for range) and has had basically zero maintenance.
I’d love an old Leaf!
Congrats on the Model Y Carl! I was waiting for the day the FI community’s #1 Tesla fan would buy one. Well-deserved, and you couldn’t have timed it better. Had you bought the car just a few months ago or last year, no $7,500 tax credit. Many people with much less assets buy/lease new cars more frequently, and you and Mindy have done a stellar job keeping the older ones in great shape with over 200k miles.
My friend has a 2021 Model Y, you will love it. It gets almost as good mileage as the 3, however the seats fold flat in the back, and the space is great. As with the ride and everything else. And he paid $70k for a used one at Carmax that has 12k miles on it!
Thanks Gary! I’m pretty excited, but there is still a chance I’ll chicken out and cancel. Stay tuned!
Maybe this should be the EV you are looking for? https://www.discogs.com/sell/release/2485033?ev=rb
Haha! Funny enough, I just listened to the “Into the Wild” soundtrack all the way through yesterday on a run.
Have you seen what Subaru is working on?
https://www.subaru.com/solterra-ev.html
Yeah, but the volume is super low. I think they’re only making something like 6,000 of them for 2022.
I switched jobs earlier this year, and the new role has a 110 mile round trip. The minute my start date was official, I ordered a Model Y performance. I had similar concerns about build quality, and mechanical issues (never, I repeat NEVER frequent the Tesla forums on Reddit…). I ordered the MYP because I wanted the car with the shortest delivery time. Back in Mid April, estimates were May-June. I knew that was a fantasy, but I wasn’t in a huge rush. After a number of revised delivery windows, I got the coveted 2 week window and then was able to make an appt for delivery on August 15.
This was the 12th new car I’ve bought or leased in my life (including cars for my wife and I over the last 35 years). It was by far the best experience I’ve ever had. No a-hole salesman to deal with, no sitting in the finance office to complete the purchase and rebuff all the add on crap, no wondering if I got the best possible deal, no paying $5-10K over sticker… nothing. Easier than ordering something on Amazon (fewer choices!).
I had a level 2 charger installed in my garage (thanks to a $1500 rebate from my utility, the entire cost of the charger* (Tesla’s have the charger in the car, so the cord is actually the “wall connector”) and electrician was covered (I could have likely done it myself though). I will also get a discounted electric rate when charging off peak (the software allows you to select when that happens.
Getting the car at my delivery appointment was strange. Show up in an uber, walk in, tell them I’m there for a delivery, they ask my name, pull up the car on a GPS map of their lot, point me to my car, ask me to go get the paperwork in the car, and sign/return to them. I wander back there, get the paperwork, sign it, hand it over, and then….nothing. I was free to go. Fortunately, I had watched the videos online and knew (mostly) about the car’s features and how to drive it, and have a friend with a Model 3 who is very responsive by text, so that helped.
I drove the car as much as possible in the first week, cause today I dropped it off to be wrapped (one downside to Tesla is the color options are minimal) in a matte finish (and to protect against rock chips which my last car suffered greatly with).
My impressions: At pickup, my car was flawless. If the body had gaps, I sure didn’t notice. The paint finish looked perfect too. Everything worked as expected, and the car is silent. Not a misplaced rattle at all. Some of the controls take a little to get used to (like, everything on the touch screen…But the UI is pretty intuitive, and they’ve modified the software so you can put the most frequently used apps and controls at a menu dock on the bottom of the screen. Its a little strange not to have an instrument cluster, but I’m getting used to it. The best thing is the car is like a jet, instant acceleration, quick cornering. Ride (the Performance model) is tight, which I really like. Sound system is great. Autopilot is really good. I’m not sure I will go for enhanced AP and definitely won’t spring for Full Self Driving.
I’m very happy so far.
The alternatives? I considered every available electric car out there, including those from the big 3, the Audi, and the BMW offerings, as well as Polestar, Lucid, and Rivian. The only one I considered looking at was the Mach-e from Ford. But even those have quality issues. So yes, Tesla has quality issues, but on CR, the Y rates as 90 for driving experience (and 59 for quality) but owenr satisfaction is still very high.
So I spun the wheel and took my chances. It was the best choice for me considering price, availability, range, driving experience and overall value. I am realistic about needing repairs, and hope I dont run into catastrophic problems
Few quick thoughts here. We are also in market for new EV after our 2013 Nissan Leaf was totaled by a distracted driver that ran a red light. Everyone thankfully okay.
I think concerns over Tesla build quality, particularly panel gaps, are dated and no longer the case. There were issues with panel gaps in the early days of the Model 3 ramp, but those were corrected and Model Y ramp was much smoother.
Often overlooked, but buyers should consider the format and thermal regulation of the battery pack. Very few EVs outside of Tesla provide active thermal management (glycol cooling) of their battery pack. This greatly improves the longevity of the battery pack. Tesla also uses cylindrical batteries, where most use pouch batteries. The latter have had more issues/recalls.
I think it is unlikely Tesla lowers their prices anytime soon. The had depleted their allotment of $7500 tax credits (200,00 per manufacturer) under the previous EV incentive package. Whereas most manufacturer’s, except GM, had not. So, Tesla has been at a disadvantage the past couple years, yet still raised their average selling price by $10k of more over that time span. Now that most Tesla models will qualify for the new incentive starting in 2023, it’s unlikely Tesla will need to lower prices anytime soon and some models may even see additional price increases.
Bottom line for me is I believe Tesla EVs are worth the premium. Best batteries, no dealerships, supercharger network, slowest battery degradation due to battery form and active thermal management, superior software and over-the-air updates, and each vehicle comes with FSD hardware and ability to purchase FSD down the road when/if its solved. So, I see the value, but my frugal nature struggles with a $60k vehicle purchase even if the I think the long-term value proposition is there. I think the current EV scarcity lasts for as long as the battery supply lags behind EV demand. So for the next 3-4 years at least. One thing for certain, I would not buy a new ICE right now, unless you also enjoy box TVs, flip phones, and Kodak cameras.
“One thing for certain, I would not buy a new ICE right now, unless you also enjoy box TVs, flip phones, and Kodak cameras.”
Haha, so true though! When do you think we see ICE vehicles start to crash in price? I bet it starts before 2025.
Totally agree with the battery pack management. I think that this is one of the reason early Leafs lose a lot of range.
Hey Carl,
I think the collapse of ICE vehicle resale value is going to happen sooner than most realize. I agree with your estimate of 2-3 years.
Yeah, what some may not realize is that for this to happen, EVs don’t have to be a huge share of the market. They just have to start to disrupt a bit. It’s going to be really interesting to watch.
EVs are already way cheaper to maintain. I don’t think most folks will choose ICE once EVs are cheaper to buy.
I for one look forward to never going to a gas station again! Except for the one on my roof which has a convenient electron delivery port in my garage:
I agree with most everything you say here Justin, with a few exceptions:
Being frugal is not a possibility in the current auto procurement process. In December 2021 I paid an obscene to me amount of money for a Prius Prime (plug in Prius version) for our son (think like $3000 less than the car sold for new in 2018). Its a necessity, not a nice to have, and imo, buying a used Tesla or other electric car is even more difficult than buying a used ICE car as who would I even take that to for evaluation? So your only option is new. Then comparing Tesla to all other electric models available, Tesla is “middle of the pack” in terms of price. Sure, you can find a new Leaf, Bolt or even Smart EV cheaper, but you are not going to pay less than a Model 3 performance price for any comparable models made by Hyundai/Kia, Ford (Mach-e or F-150 Lightning) or VW (good luck finding one). All the other electric only car manufacturers (Polestar, Rivian and Lucid) have much more expensive offerings, and are in serious risk of not being around in a few years. So that actually makes Tesla a “reasonable” selection in my opinion. If you want a new car that is electric, there is really no strong budget option.
I also don’t think that ICE cars will disappear or become cheaper by demand as soon as 2025. Cost, charging availability, and range issues are all things that will take much longer to sort out. and I think it will be considerably longer until ICE engines are less than 50% of all cars sold. There will be places in my garage for both ICE and electric cars for a very long time, likely until my time on the planet is done…(I’m 56)
Hey Jason,
Thanks for your thoughts. I guess it’s hard to say buying any new vehicle is frugal. My thinking is I have a choice, with state and federal credits, of buying a new Nissan Leaf for ~$18k or a new Tesla for ~$50k after credits (base models). Clearly, there is a spread here. I think the premium for the Tesla is justifiable for the reasons I spoke to previously, but for $32k more it gives me pause.
I don’t think ICE vehicles will disappear anytime soon. There is obviously going to a transition period where both EVs and ICE vehicles share the road in large numbers. My theory is the re-sale value for ICE vehicles will collapse quickly once the general population realizes EVs are the superior product and the future of ground transportation. What you will find is people delaying their next vehicle purchase and keeping their existing vehicles until they can either afford an EV and/or EV production increases to meet demand. How many people bought tube/box TVs once it was obvious flat screens were the future? Maybe you waited for the price to come down, but few people bought new box TVs once flat screens went main stream. The first flat screens come on the scene in the 1990s. The prices started dropping rapidly starting around 2000. Flat screen production overtook tube TV production in the US in 2005 and tube TV production came to a near halt right in the US by 2007. The resale market for old TVs collapsed to the point you could hardly give away an old set by 2010. It took a decade from the start of mass production of flat screens to kill the market for the disrupted technological predecessor. The market pricing for ICE will adjust long before EVs reach 50% of vehicles on the road. More like 10-20% will provide a strong signal to potential buyers of the trend and start depressing the value of ICE vehicles. If we use the same decade timeline for EVs from the start of mass production in 2018, then we’ll likely see ICE vehicle values start to collapse by 2025. Maybe it takes a few more years due to battery supply constraints, but more and more people are going to choose to limp along in their old ICE vehicles for a couple more years rather than buy another ICE vehicle they know is going to be considered obsolete long before the recapture their investment.
EVs and flat screen TVs are a somewhat apt comparison that I would like to further expound on. If flat screens took 10 years until full adaptation, I would argue that EVs, by virtue of being such a larger item and much more expensive, would likely take much longer for widespread adoption. Buying a new TV is far different than buying a new vehicle. Furthermore, a large portion of the U.S. population are renters. Apartments are not easily or quickly retrofitted with charging stations in the off-chance a resident may want to purchase a Tesla. A great number of U.S. citizens also live in trailer parks or manufactured houses – these typically don’t have garages and are also on rented land. I believe it will take far longer than 10 years for EVs to reach a meaningful saturation point, though eventually, they will.
What do you think is a meaningful saturation point?
I agree with the longer upgrade cycle of cars versus TVs, but cars have external pressures too. It amuses me that whenever gas is cheap, sales of big-ass SUVs go nuts. In times of expensive fuel, you can’t find an EV. The tax credit should juice (pun intended) EVs as well. Don’t forget about China, Western Europe, and California putting the pressure on too.
Jason!
Thanks for the awesome review and your experience is reassuring. I hope it continues to go well.
If I decide to go through with the purchase, I should be picking my red MYLR up in January. Stay tuned…
based on manufacturing backlog, I would not hope to pick it up that soon…
Also, I forgot to mention that NJ, where I live, waives sales tax (6.25%) on EVs. That was a nice surprise when I paid the final bill (I didn’t realize that). So while no EV rebate on my taxes, it did pay for the Performance upgrade…
Also, not fer nuthin, but red? you like getting tickets?
I DID not want red. I would have opted for the Stormtrooper configuration (white), but Mindy wouldn’t have it.
Thinking about doing this as well. We are looking for a 3 row SUV full electric, and there’s only one manufacturer that does that at the moment.
Have to think about it a little more. We want to get a 3 row SUV, but I want to get electric. So, I’m torn because the Tesla’s aren’t all that much more expensive than the competition in that market. I guess I’ll wait and see at this point. Here’s hoping some competition comes out shortly.
But yes, dealerships are the absolute worst.
Just to be clear, you can get the Model Y with a 3rd row. It’s not big and you have to pay 3K for it…
You had me at third row USB-C charging!
It’s about time dude! 🙂
I agree with your reasoning here that, oddly enough, a Tesla Model Y is still a rational choice in today’s market even with the crazy-high pricing (for the rare and fortunate person who can afford 70k without it making much of a dent in the FI fund). For everyone else, e-bikes and moving closer to work are starting to look even better these days.
Meanwhile, after an initial few years of feeling foolish for blowing money on my unnecessary Nissan Leaf (bought new in 2016 for under 14k after tax credits), I now get to feel retroactively smart for a little while since the used value is more than the new cost at the time.
It’s still a great car though. 15k on the odometer after 6 years (and even then it took a lot of sharing it around between friends to get up such mileage). Battery health is estimated at 82%, still does about 90 miles of mixed driving in summer, less in winter. But because there are about 10x as many public chargers around now compared to in 2016, its effective range has gone *up*. So I think I’ll be able to cruise though a few more years until EV supply catches up with demand, before buying another one.
This shortage feels huge and permanent right now, but when you look at the dozens of billion-dollar battery factories that are already under construction or starting to operate, I think we’re in for a supply boom pretty soon (2 years). Let this comment be my Internet Prediction, so I can be judged on it on the future. 🙂
Haha, we’ll revisit in 2 years! That seems like a reasonable amount of time for there to be a shit-ton more EVs. At that time, the Tesla Austin and Berlin factories will be ramped up. Hopefully, others can scale up by then too.
In any case, you’ll be the 3rd to drive the Y whenever it shows up!
I have been thinking about purchasing an EV myself. Our family car (2005 Focus, 170k miles) still runs fine, but we could use a little more cargo space, and I would love to support the EV transition. Long story short, I agree with you about all the currently available cars, and the prices are just through the roof. I read that Chevy wants to release an EV blazer and Equinox next year, and they want the Equinox to start around $30k. My plan is to hold out for a year or two and see how those pan out. I have my fingers crossed that something like an EV Toyota Sienna will come out in that time, and also be reasonably priced!
Also, I didn’t see you mention the Mustang Mach E in your list. Any interest in that one?
Hey Sean!
“My plan is to hold out for a year or two and see how those pan out.” Smart move! I may do the same.
An electric minivan would be awesome!
And yeah, I like the Mach E, but they stopped taking orders. Oof!
Congrats on the Model Y order! You’re going to love it!
I just had mine delivered in May and the build quality was flawless. I asked the shop before taking delivery, there is now an extensive inspection before delivery occurs. Any issues are repaired before the customer looks at it. Hopefully that calms your nerves some.
Another thought on the cost. If you’re not using it every day, you could rent it out on Turo. I have friends doing that and they are averaging half their payment or more. For all intents and purposes, cutting the cost of the car in half.
Ah, Turo is an interesting idea! Maybe I’ll keep my CT order and stick that on Turo too? People would pay big money, at least for a while, to rent one.
Wild thought. You’re a DIYer. Have you looked into doing an EV conversion on either of your current vehicles? 🙂
I have, but it’s big money and a lot of work! I’ve got the money, but not the time. Also, they’re always a bit of a compromise.
Rode in my friends VW ID4 last winter to Steamboat changed my perspective quite a bit…range anxiety is a serious thing! He was 80% charged when we left Aurora, but the range got down to 10 miles at the start of the Eisenhower Tunnel. We charged over lunch, but got tied up with road closure at Rabbit Ears and had to backtrack to Kremmling. We waited 3 hours and all the L2 charger did was maintain his charge due to the cold. It was actually a terrible experience overall and as a single car household that wants to drive into the mountains during winter, it’s not for me…yet.
The range of the Model Y should alleviate range anxiety, but I can’t justify spending 2x what I did for my Mazda CX5 that’s a similar size with more range. Following along to see how you enjoy the new toy 🙂
Oof, that trip doesn’t sound like fun. Tesla is supposed to open its (faster) chargers to everyone else soon. This will help alleviate some of the anxiety.
I totally see what you mean with the CX5! I kinda feel like a big doofus already just for ordering the Y! 🙂
One other thing to plan for: tires. I’ve read EV’s chew through tires 20%+ faster than a comparable ICE vehicle. I believe this is due to a combo of instant torque and weight. Ex: the ID4 weighs 800 lbs more than my CX5 and it’s the tires taking the add’l load.
Yeah, I’ve heard that too! If I go through with the Tesla, the first thing I’m doing is setting the acceleration to Chill mode. Also, Mindy drives like a maniac, so maybe she should not drive the Tesla?!?? 🙂
I have this feeling that electric cars are not the answer. Just like wind and solar are not the answer.
We have a plug in Ford Fusion. It is a 2017. 80k miles now. Reliable and it is a regular gas hybrid once the small electric only battery is exhausted.
Our next new car will likely be a gas hybrid or gas.
If my electric rate goes through the roof, it is just a transfer from gas costs to electric.
It will be an interesting journey through the next few years. An all electric car Cali should be interesting. $5 per kwh. Gulp.
Why do you think wind and solar aren’t the answer? I’m a fan of nuclear energy, but renewables could eventually fill in (They’re already coming on stronger than I would have guessed: https://electrek.co/2022/08/25/us-renewables-first-half-2022). It will take a lot of work on energy storage and grid updates, but the technology is here.
My worry is that as we move towards an electric future that includes EVs and heat pumps, we’re going to need to generate a sh*t-ton of additional electricity. It’s time to start moving.
Here in the Bay area, Volkswagen dealers want 10k-20k over MSRP for an ID.4 and they call the add on as “Market Conditions”
Oof, that sucks.
Nissan Leaf is good alternative.
Louisville neighbor here. I’ve been itching to go EV for years now, but was definitely a laggard when it comes to making the jump. We decided to go with the Y LR. Placed the order in January 22 and was slated to get it in Sept, but then it pushed to Q1 in early summer. With gas going crazy, I reached out to Tesla and they said they had one in Littleton with 3mi on it in a different color, but otherwise same config. Decided to jump on it and picked it up that week.
We did a lengthy quality check walk-thru at pickup and I couldn’t find any defects. We’ve had it for 90 days now and it’s been great. Range is a little less than advertised, but everything else has been spot on. Fun to drive, great to not have to visit gas stations every week.
I actually got the car for my fiance and we replaced her Subaru with it. But I drive it as often as I can, when she’s not at work! I’ve got a Rivian R1S on order to replace my 4runner. The 4runner will be SO hard to let go of but we’re excited to become a solar and all-ev household!
Hey Charles!
I’m so glad to hear that your Y didn’t have any issues. I’ve seen some in the wild with crazy body gap issues. Did you use a checklist to inspect your Y?
There is a chance I’ll punt on the Y. I really wanted a LR Y out of Austin with the new casting tech and 4680s. However, the battery tech is so far behind, I’m thinking that I’d have to wait at least another year.
Rivian! I’ve seen a bunch in person and the build quality seems great. I’ve chatted up several owners and they all love them.
EVs are cool but I have a tough time with the fact that EVs were designed to save the auto industry and not the planet. Living closer to my activities and needs so I bike, walk and take public transportation more is key to my future. Where I live the traffic is insane and EVs don’t help with that at all.
I agree that getting in a car sucks. However, if you have to drive, EVs are still better for the environment, even if you get your power from coal.
Hey Mr 1500Days! Another great post, thank you! Have you heard of EV West? They do EV conversions and kits for classic cars, mainly vw and porches. Per a video I just saw they are working on a delorian, super exciting! I love the idea of using what we have rather than throwing out the old completely.
I have not heard of them! I’d love an electric NSX though!
That would be extremely cool!
My next car will be EV but likely not for another 7-10 years ? Thanks for sharimg your experience.
2021 Tesla Y owner here. Absolutely love this car! I’m a tech junkie and this car makes long trips so enjoyable.
Hi Carl, we have had our Polestar 2 for about three months now and are in love! There is a Polestar space in Cherry creek where you can take a no pressure test drive. They’re great, high quality vehicles supported by the Volvo brand safety specs. Give one a look! Cheers!
Oooh, the Polestar looks like a fine car. Next time I’m in Denver, I’ll check one out. Thanks for the recommendation!
Carl–You captured my experience nearly exactly so no need to repeat it here. I hate car dealers so much and their salespeople that it does bear repeating. I decided to wait the market out. And the build quality of Tesla is disturbing–many vloggers document this quite well. When the flood of EVs are out there they will be forced to address it. Ugh!
I hear your frustration and completely agree every dealing I have ever had with a dealership has had some frustration. Thought I would share a conversation I had with someone yesterday, they had just picked up their new VW electric car, it does not come with a jack. If you get a picture you need to call out a breakdown service according to the salesperson the battery is under the floor and is easily damaged so needs a trained person to jack up the vehicle this is progress!?!?
Wow, that is ridiculous.