My main goal* was to build an investment and cash portfolio of $1,120,000* ($1,000,000 to retire on and $120,000 to pay off the house) in 1500 days**, starting from 1/1/2013 and ending in February of 2017. I made my goal in 2016, my 1500 Days are over, and I’ve left my job. In the interest of openness, I’ll continue to share my numbers. For now. I’m not quite sure what purpose this serves, so I may discontinue this feature soon.
Tech Gone Wild?!
At the gym this morning I was listening to the Animal Spirits podcast. Host Michael Batnick mentioned that the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 is off to its best start every. Through August 1st, the index was up almost 39% while the S&P 500 was up 16%. Impressive:
I thought that piece of information was pretty neat:
Best start ever!
I told Mindy about it and made a mental note to do some more research when I got home.
The great start isn’t so impressive when you zoom out to the start of 2022. Note that in the chart below:
- The NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 have performed almost exactly the same
- Both are below their all-time highs
I then looked at my portfolio and saw that I’m still below time highs as well:
- 2022 was a very bad, no-good year. At one point the NASDAQ 100 was down over 30% and the S&P 500 over 20%. The black swans of the Ukraine invasion and inflation beat down the markets.
- What to do? Even if you knew about the very-bad-events coming in 2022, what would you have done? Consider COVID. After an initial drawdown, the markets recovered and went nuts. Who would have known this was going to happen? You can’t predict a black swan. You also can’t predict the reactions to its arrival.
- Be wary of when you hear advice. Whenever anyone tells you about an investment, do your own research. Make sure the data isn’t cherry-picked and that there aren’t ulterior motives involved.
- To the long-term investor (and we should all be long-term), the great start of the NASDAQ 100 is mostly useless information.
One of the best parts of being a long-term investor is that you’re liberated from having to worry about any of the above points. Put money away for at least 10 years. Set it and forget it.
July was another great month. Our investments went from $4,384,858 to $4,539,865 for a gain of $155,007:
2023 (as of 8/1/2023)
- Days elapsed: 212
- Investment gains: $1,427,044
Since the Start of The Experiment (1/1/2013)
- Days elapsed: 3,865
- Investment gains: $3,953,822
My great gains this year have been mostly due to big tech (see full portfolio here):
While I don’t buy stocks much anymore, I’m holding on to the ones that I already own. AI will be a huge source of productivity growth. Google, Tesla, and Meta are investing hard and heavy in the AI space. I’m optimistic.
Tesla shareholders could be in for some pain though. The CFO just quit (or was he fired?). I have heard rumors of manufacturing Cybertruck setbacks and would be surprised if any reached customer hands this year. The EV tax credit is switching to a point-of-sale rebate and this will cause customers to postpone purchases to 2024. I’m a long-term investor, so don’t care. Check back in with me at the end of 2025 and we’ll see how it all shook out.
More 1500 Days!!!
You can also find me (and the dinosaurs) at:
Mile High FI podcast:
- Facebook: Facebook group and page
- YouTube: My channel is mostly devoted to home improvement, but I have some other material coming up soon too.
- Instagram: Pretty pictures of dinosaurs, sunsets, and nail guns!
- Twitter: Spontaneous, often insane, ramblings
- Coworking space: On the surface, MMM HQ is a coworking space. Look a little deeper and you’ll see that we’re really building community. The members of MMM HQ are some of the finest people I know.
*My goal wasn’t to have $1,120,000 at the end of 1500 days, but at any time before the day count was up. Why? It all goes back to the 4% Rule. Remember that our little friend, Mr. 4%, is nothing more than the most conservative safe withdrawal rate. Since my investment portfolio now sits at $1,550,000, I can spend about $62,000 in my first year of retirement.
**My original goal was $1,000,000 and no debt, I later raised the goal by $120,000 to $1,120,000 because I will have debt in the form of a mortgage and I firmly believe in not paying it off (LOOK at the MONEY I’m MAKING!). My compromise was to have enough money put away to cover the mortgage at the time of retirement.
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