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Performance Update 44/50: The Incredible Power of Uncertainty

September 26, 2016 by Mr. 1500 Days 45 Comments

My main goal is to build a portfolio of $1,120,000* in 1500 days**, starting from 1/1/2013 and ending in February of 2017. I made my goal a couple months ago, but believe that it’s a worthwhile exercise to continue with my financial updates until the end of 1500 Days, so I continue.

It’s time to take a look back at August. But first, I’ll discuss something I’ve been thinking about for a while: uncertainty.

The Interview Question that I Hate Most

This is how I dressed for job interviews. Just kidding. Maybe...
This is how I dressed for job interviews. Just kidding. Maybe…

I always despised this question in job interviews:

Where do you see yourself in 5 or 10 years?

Because I’m pathetic, I’d make up something that I thought the interviewer wanted to hear:

I see myself in positions of increasing responsibility. Maybe I’ll be a team lead or system architect.

If I were honest, I would have answered:

I’d like to be doing exactly what I do now; writing code. I have no aspirations to do anything else including designing systems or management of any kind. And I really mean that last part. I never want to manage anyone. Ever.

If I had found the path to Financial Independence, I would have answered:

If I’m still spending 8-9 hours a day in a 36 square foot cube, going out for “happy” lunches when a co-worker has a birthday, sitting through annual performance appraisals, hoping that I don’t get fired when the CEO does something stupid and sales crater, I’ll have considered myself a failure.

If my life works out how I planned, I have no idea what I’ll be doing. Whatever it is, I won’t be doing it here.

The Joy of Uncertainty

I love uncertainty. Before I explain, there is one important and crucial exception:

Not money uncertainty.

I have extreme money insecurity issues. I want my finances to be secure. Never forget that the best part of having enough money is that it frees you from having to think about it.

Now that that’s out of the way, this thought makes me smile:

I have no idea what my daily routine will look like in 5 years. I have no idea how I’ll spend summers or other breaks when my children are out of school. I don’t have a clue what projects will consume me or what new passions I’ll discover.

Uncertainty is a scary word, but what it really means is options. And freedom. Hold up, I feel a graphic coming on. Boom!:

screen-shot-2016-09-25-at-5-16-51-pm
Isn’t the right choice obvious?

Perhaps Robert Frost said it best:

Two roads diverged in a wood. I took the one less traveled and that made all the difference.

 

Meh (more patheticism [yeah, I just made up that word])

August wasn’t a spectacular month, but my portfolio did go from $1,200,350 to $1,211,898 for an increase of about $11,000. Reading that sentence, the one before this one that I just wrote, is amusing. I gained $11,000 in a month and I’m like:

Meh.

I remember when I started investing and would do cartwheels when my portfolio was up $100 in a month. Now, I’m a total jerk because I’m up $11,000 and I clearly don’t appreciate it.

Of course, this is the nature of humans. We get used to our place in life and need bigger and better things to make us happy – the hedonic treadmill. I need to back up a second; maybe all is not lost?

Do we really need bigger and better? What about different instead? An FI life, free from the constraints of work, allows you to do whatever you want. When something stops moving the emotional needle, move on to another challenge. You shouldn’t do this with money, but once you have enough, you shouldn’t be thinking much about it anyway.

So yes, I embrace the uncertainty. I have no idea how I’ll fill in the blank pages of my life’s book. And I would have it no other way.

It’s time to get on with the performance update.

Personal Capital!
Chart from Personal Capital!***

2016

  • Days elapsed: 242
  • Days remaining: 123
  • 2016 gains: $153,937 (including 401(k) and some after tax contributions)
  • 2016 401(k) contributions: $51,000****

Since the start (1/1/2013)

  • Days elapsed: 1337
  • Days remaining: 163
  • Gains since 1/1/2013: $625,855
  • Needed to quit work ($1,120,000 in investments): Mission accomplished!
  • Net worth*****: $1,461,898

Big changes

Life has taken some interesting turns recently:

  • We are 99.9999% done with the house. The bank will appraise it soon and with any luck, will increase our line of credit.
  • We moved $270,000 to a self-directed solo-401(k). I don’t have time to write about this now, so tune in for a future update.
  • Free time! Since we moved into our fixer-upper home in June of 2013. Unless I was traveling, there hasn’t been a weekend where I haven’t worked on the rehab. Now that it’s thisclose to being done, I’m going to have loads more free time. I’ll now be able to work on stuff I’ve been planning for years.

I like uncertainty. However, I am certain of one thing: Life is good.

 

*My goal isn’t to have $1,120,000 at the end of 1500 days, but at any time before the day count was up. Why? It all goes back to the 4% Rule. Remember that our little friend, Mr. 4%, is nothing more than the most conservative safe withdrawal rate. So, if I were to quit my job now, I could spend about $44,000 in my first year of retirement. I’d stick very close to that number too because market valuations are ambitious. Let’s say that Mr. Market caught a cold tomorrow and my portfolio dropped down to $800,000. No big deal. This would mean I’d be safer stretching my spending a little north of 4%.

**My original goal was $1,000,000 and no debt, I later raised the goal by $120,000 to $1,120,000 because I will have debt in the form of a mortgage which I firmly believe in not paying it off. My compromise is to have enough money put away to cover the mortgage at the time of retirement. So, to retire today, I would need about $1,120,000.

***This is an affiliate link. If you sign up, the blog (me) makes some cold, hard cash. Personal Capital is a totally free and awesome way to keep watch over your investments. It’s worth it for the fee analyzer alone. I would never recommend anything that I don’t personally use and completely believe in, so give it a try. If you’ve already signed up through the link, please know that you are a fine person of above-average intelligence.

****My 401(k) contributions include my own, Mrs. 15oo’s, and the contributions from my corporation. Self-employment with a solo 401(k) is a very powerful savings tool. I should have done this years ago.

*****The numbers on the right side of the page only reflect my investments and cash. Net worth includes, but is not limited to:

  • Home equity
  • Cars
  • Bicycles
  • Our San Diego FinCon memories!: OK, memories really aren’t worth anything at all. However, we had a wonderful time in San Diego hanging out with our Financial Independence pals.
The Financial Independence crew hanging out.
The Financial Independence crew hanging out. With dinosaurs.
My friends, the Debt Free Guys being interviewed (no doubt, for a major media outlet).
My friends, the Debt Free Guys being interviewed (probably CNN or MSNBC).
San Diego sunset
San Diego sunset.

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Filed Under: Performance Tagged With: performamce update

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. The Green Swan says

    September 26, 2016 at 5:25 am

    Like you said, not a bad month in the grand scheme of things. That will support your lifestyle! I hear what you are saying about moving the emotional needle. I feel like I’m getting to that point right now at work where I need to try something new, I’ve been in this role for about 5 years. Before that I hadn’t ever stayed in a role longer than 2.5 years. But, similar to you, that won’t be a problem in retirement…
    The Green Swan recently posted…The Frugal MillionaireMy Profile

    Reply
  2. Matt @ Optimize Your Life says

    September 26, 2016 at 5:50 am

    I really like your idea of loving uncertainty. I don’t know that I’ve ever thought of it in that frame before, but I love having options and I love the ability to jump from project to project with my spare time. I have also struggled with the “Where do you want to be in 10 years” question. Maybe I also love uncertainty.

    Congrats both on the growth and on hitting a point where that growth feels meh!
    Matt @ Optimize Your Life recently posted…Your Emergency FundMy Profile

    Reply
  3. Gwen @ Fiery Millennials says

    September 26, 2016 at 5:52 am

    It was great to see the dinosaurs again! Oh, and you two as well 🙂

    If you feel meh about the $11k gain, you’re more than welcome to send it my way and I’ll do the cartwheels hahaha

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 6:00 pm

      The dinosaurs told me that they enjoyed seeing you again too. They are usually very negative and needy (“I want more In-N-Out Burger!”), so it was nice to hear some positivity out of their little mouths.

      Reply
  4. Team CF says

    September 26, 2016 at 6:04 am

    “I like uncertainty. However, I am certain of one thing: Life is good”

    Life certainly is good, you just got to realize this once in a while 😉

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 6:01 pm

      Ha, I try to think about it every. Single. Day. It’s easy to forget just how good life is. Stupid hedonic treadmill!

      Reply
  5. Brian @ Debt Discipline says

    September 26, 2016 at 6:17 am

    Good to see the double comma club still in place. Meh.

    So what happens in February of 2017 with the 50th update? You shutting this thing down?
    Brian @ Debt Discipline recently posted…Interview Series: Solving FinanceMy Profile

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 6:03 pm

      “You shutting this thing down?”

      The answer is… Oh wait, I hear the phone! I’ll be right back.

      Reply
      • Brian @ Debt Discipline says

        September 28, 2016 at 12:58 pm

        meh…..
        Brian @ Debt Discipline recently posted…Tips to Help You Get Out of DebtMy Profile

        Reply
  6. Rebekah says

    September 26, 2016 at 6:54 am

    Hey Mr. 1500! I love the update! It’s so inspiring to see your progress! I have a question for you – have you ever detailed on the blog how much you contribute total per year to your investment accounts (taxable and non-taxable)?

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 6:07 pm

      I have not kept track of it. Just too busy to keep track.

      This year, I’ve contributed about $70,000 (50K pre-tax). I’m so thankful for our jobs that allow us to contribute this much. I’ll also note that we spend far more than we save though. Frugality is the cornerstone.

      Reply
  7. Mr. Tako @ Mr. Tako Escapes says

    September 26, 2016 at 7:24 am

    Yeah, I hate that interview question too. I never know what the right thing to say is…so I end up making something up that sounds good.

    I think one of the key reasons humans like uncertainty or at least “different”, is boredom. If everything is too well planned out in life we just get bored.

    Uncertainty keeps life interesting. Keeps the adrenaline moving and the heart pumping.

    Reply
    • Vicki@MakeSmarterDecisions says

      September 27, 2016 at 4:26 am

      I guess even being asked that question you guys hate is a good thing though! I love this line – “Whatever it is, I won’t be doing it here.” I’m using that one (it a little gentler way!) right now when people ask if I’ll stay on at this temporary job I’m in! Love the FinCon pics too – and hoping we can meet some of the great folks in the PF community there next year or in our travels out west next fall!
      Vicki@MakeSmarterDecisions recently posted…Our Snowbird Housing Plan – Two Homes for Under $100,000My Profile

      Reply
  8. Joe says

    September 26, 2016 at 9:45 am

    I am so glad I never have go through an interview again. I can’t be genuine in that setting. Love your answer to the 5 years question. I love it here and I want to be here in 5 years. Great to meet you in SD. You and Mindy are very down to earth. Gotta run to the rental… See ya next time.
    Joe recently posted…When Being Cheap Didn’t Work Out…My Profile

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 6:08 pm

      Joe-

      It was a real pleasure meeting and talking to you! I hope that you’ll be willing to chat more when we make it to your neck of the woods. And I hope you’ll look us up should you come to Colorado.

      Reply
  9. Mrs PoP says

    September 26, 2016 at 10:45 am

    I guess I’ve always answered that interview question pretty honestly whenever asked – In 5-10 years I’d like to see me and my husband fulfilling some of our more entrepreneurial desires, which I think still holds true even in potential FI since I’m quite confident we’ll never be truly done doing something or other.

    Glad you guys had a good time in SD, and even more glad that the house is almost done. Just in time for you to come down here in the spring and work on some tile for the rest of our house with Mr PoP, no? j/k =)
    Mrs PoP recently posted…Real Estate Values Update – Third, The Golden TurdMy Profile

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 6:09 pm

      You’re much better adjusted and secure than me Mrs. PoP! No surprise there.

      I’d love to help! Let’s do it!

      Reply
      • Mrs PoP says

        September 27, 2016 at 7:11 pm

        Ha, I wouldn’t say better adjusted! Though perhaps a little more okay with giving others vague facts/notions and letting them draw their own conclusions from there… =)
        Mrs PoP recently posted…Real Estate Values Update – Third, The Golden TurdMy Profile

        Reply
      • Mr. Pop says

        September 28, 2016 at 4:03 am

        Honesty might be the best thing that FU-money can buy.

        You don’t have to lie to people and tell them you want to do terrible things (like manage people) in exchange for money.
        Mr. Pop recently posted…Real Estate Values Update – Third, The Golden TurdMy Profile

        Reply
  10. Done by Forty says

    September 26, 2016 at 12:29 pm

    We really are spoiled creatures. It’s hard to not have everything, good or bad, revert to a feeling of normal after a while.

    Still, an $11k gain still feels good in context. Instead of $11,000 dollars, you could think of it as a separate investment that throws of $440 safely forever, and that $440 goes exclusively to 44 craft beer six packs a year, at $10 a piece.

    That’s almost a six pack a week, forever! That $11k is, in someways, a perpetual drinking machine.

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 6:10 pm

      DBF, I like the way you think.

      Reply
  11. Financial Panther says

    September 26, 2016 at 12:46 pm

    I remember getting that question all the time when I was interviewing for jobs. I had to convince the firm that my entire end game was to work there forever and become a partner, even though I knew that wasn’t my real answer (financial independence wasn’t really my answer either though). My real answer was that I just wanted to do good work, get a good paycheck, pay off my loans, save some money, and then figure out something else to do. Companies and firms don’t really like that answer though. They want someone who has certainty in where they are going – and that certainty is sticking with the company and rising through the ranks forever. Do companies really believe the answers people give them, I wonder?

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 6:13 pm

      “Do companies really believe the answers people give them, I wonder?”

      Ha, who knows!? But I’d also suspect that a lot of folks to want to work their way up into middle management. (new Audi!)

      Reply
    • Lynne says

      September 26, 2016 at 7:58 pm

      Meh, last time we asked that question in a round of interviews, we didn’t put much stock in the answers – people were pretty obviously telling us what they figured we wanted to hear. (We were hiring for a level X role, and everybody said that in five years they wanted to be X+1. Sure, whatever.)

      The last position *I* was hiring for, that question didn’t make it onto my list – I’m not about to waste time on anything I don’t think will produce a useful response.

      (I suppose it would be more useful if people *did* answer honestly and say things like “I want to keep doing what I’m doing and never be a manager.” But they don’t. And I don’t blame them. I’m looking for a new job right now and *I’m* not going to give a fully honest answer to that question if it comes up…no way I’m mentioning my 5-6 year FI plan!)

      Reply
      • 1500 says

        September 26, 2016 at 9:31 pm

        Looking back, I feel a bit foolish for not letting my true self shine through.

        The question is a bit foolish too. If I was doing the interview (and I did at times), I’d ask some far out questions…

        Reply
  12. Daniel Manfre says

    September 26, 2016 at 3:54 pm

    Mr. 15000, I so wanted to read your linked article https://www.1500days.com/call-me-chief-fart-captain, but, instead got a not found page. 🙁

    The title alone had me engaged. I know you’re human, but, I’m addicted to your dilbertish musings. Keep it up!

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 6:13 pm

      Crap, I don’t know what happened. That was a good one. I’m trying to find it now.

      Reply
  13. Janet says

    September 26, 2016 at 5:48 pm

    I agree with everything you say except for not paying off the mortgage. Do you have an opinion on opening new credit cards for the airline miles? My credit score is very high and I don’t want any ill effects from applying for additional cards.

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 5:54 pm

      Hi Janet! We can’t agree on everything and that’s OK.

      Regarding cards, as long as you manage them well, go for it! The credit score hit is minor and since yours is high, you have a buffer.

      Reply
  14. DanO says

    September 26, 2016 at 6:11 pm

    Watch out Mr 1500 I am right behind you at $1.1m (not including payed for cars, house). Will most likely not retire for 4 years mostly to get my youngest kid through college. As I said “most likely” if I don’t like the work any more I can always just go

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 6:14 pm

      Uh oh, I’m competitive DanO. I may stay at work to stay ahead of you! Oh wait, no I’m not!

      Also, watch out, you may end up with loads of money at an advanced age…

      Reply
      • DanO says

        September 26, 2016 at 6:27 pm

        Yes I thought about ending up with loads of money at an advanced age but I think travel, early retirement and the delay of SS to 67-70 will ravage my taxable account.

        Reply
  15. Mustard Seed Money says

    September 26, 2016 at 6:52 pm

    I can’t wait for the day that I make $11,000 in a month and I say eh. Sounds like a good Eh to have. It’s amazing that you love what you do right now. Too often you hear about people that hate their jobs and are miserable as they try to strive for FIRE. Sounds like you have the right balance between the two. CONGRATS!!!
    Mustard Seed Money recently posted…Who Wants to be a Millionaire?My Profile

    Reply
  16. Jon @ Be Net Worthy says

    September 26, 2016 at 7:49 pm

    Great post 1500! I love your thoughts on embracing uncertainty, it’s a great way to beat boredom, right? And that interview question? I hate it too. Hopefully, I’ll only have to answer it for a few more years…
    Jon @ Be Net Worthy recently posted…Net Worthy Goal Setting Strategies from Corporate AmericaMy Profile

    Reply
  17. Jacq says

    September 26, 2016 at 8:58 pm

    Ug to the ‘in 5 years’ question. 10 years ago I was in a job I liked, was growing in, enjoying the challenges but a year later the board of directors looked at the balance sheets and removing the company made sense to them. I was dating some one at the time and figured by now, house kids picket fence whatnot. That didn’t happen either. Despite answering the question that I’d like to manage 1-2 people at my last job, they started hiring in the 2 levels above me, indicating I wasn’t going to get a promotion, let alone direct reports in any near or not so near future.
    I’m pretty up front with interviewers, that in this industry things can change so quickly, I’ve let go of a concrete vision of 5 years from now which let’s me be flexible to embrace change and fills the roles needed, vs fitting into a specified defined vision. *shrug*

    I am glad the dinosaurs had a good time at fin con!

    Reply
    • 1500 says

      September 26, 2016 at 9:39 pm

      “I’ve let go of a concrete vision of 5 years from now which let’s me be flexible to embrace change and fills the roles needed, vs fitting into a specified defined vision”

      Yeah! Flexibility is powerful thing. It’s also the key to a successful life; early retirement or not. Every human has poop thrown in our face. Sometimes, entire countries or large parts of the world get piles of feces thrown at them (Great Recession). It’s how he dodge the turd or deal with getting hit in the face with it. My response has gone down a nasty road, so I’ll stop now before it gets any worse. I apologize for the imagery.

      Reply
  18. Mrs. S says

    September 27, 2016 at 1:08 am

    Probably the question I actually dread in an interview because there is simply no way to know if you have answered it well. If you chart the regular path you are not ambitious, on the other hand too ambitious answer and the person on the other side of table gets insecure.
    I can only hope that such a big change will one day stop affecting me. Thankfully I have passed the stage of trailing every single paisa. But I still need to embrace uncertainty, life sounds better when you are not worried about what will happen.
    Mrs. S recently posted…Royally Frugal Life: What it means for us?My Profile

    Reply
  19. ADI says

    September 27, 2016 at 5:24 am

    Those are some incredible graphics! That second one resonates with me a bit, as my job is similar in that I am happiest where I am now, as opposed to moving any further up. Having said that, I certainly am not aiming to spend the next 30 years doing exactly what I am doing now. I’ve always found that being honest when I’m asked that particular interview question can result in the interviewer opening up a little more, which is cool.

    Reply
  20. PhysicianOnFIRE says

    September 27, 2016 at 2:35 pm

    I had seen that picture around the FIRE on the interwebs, but didn’t notice the dinosaurs. Glad to see those two didn’t miss out on the festivitities at FinCon. See you in Dallas in 13 short months!

    -PoF
    PhysicianOnFIRE recently posted…A Physician Takes a Step Towards MinimalismMy Profile

    Reply
  21. Dividends Down Under says

    September 28, 2016 at 4:35 am

    Any update where you can say your net worth is $1.4M is pretty awesome, even if it’s not as much as you’d like.

    If life were always certain, it’d be pretty boring. Life is full of surprises; I’d want it that way 🙂

    Tristan
    Dividends Down Under recently posted…Share Purchase: WAM Capital (ASX:WAM)My Profile

    Reply
  22. Ten Factorial Rocks (TFR) says

    September 28, 2016 at 7:14 am

    Uncertainty is everywhere, some of us with high equity allocations just get used to it. 🙂 I know, your kind of NW change over a month feels Meh after especially seeing 5-figure portfolio swings weekly or even on some days. Looks like you had a lot of fun at San Diego. Hope to see you guys at a future FinCon.
    Ten Factorial Rocks (TFR) recently posted…Why The Poor Stay PoorMy Profile

    Reply
  23. Mrs. Picky Pincher says

    September 28, 2016 at 8:42 am

    Woohoo! Way to go on almost completing your house. 🙂 As a person who just started renovations myself, I know how absolutely insurmountable they can feel at times.

    I’ve always hated that interview question, too. I know they’re asking because they want to make sure your goals align with theirs, but in all honesty I’ve never worked at a company for more than 2 years. Companies rarely align with my true goals, which are personal and not really professionally-oriented.

    Because working in an office sucks. Period. Whether I have more responsibility or not, it’s still not going to be as fun as FIRE.
    Mrs. Picky Pincher recently posted…How Complaining About Life Has Saved Me MoneyMy Profile

    Reply
  24. Jason says

    September 28, 2016 at 3:42 pm

    I have to admit I am a fan of order and not uncertainty. I like a plan and like to know what I am doing. At the same time, it is nice to have a little chaos in life and in about 7 months I will have even more chaos than ever before. I am looking forward to that though. Good thing is that you are only 4 months or so from being done!!!!

    Reply
  25. Shannon says

    October 7, 2016 at 11:04 am

    Ack, I’ve always hated that tired interview question! I like writing copy, plain and simple. 🙂

    Reply

Trackbacks

  1. The Church of FI – September 2016 Expense and Net Worth reports from the blogosphere | The Jolly Ledger says:
    October 20, 2016 at 6:43 am

    […] 1500 days (August’s performance update – published end of September so I’ll include it here) […]

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Freedom!

My goal was to build a portfolio of $1,000,000 by February of 2017; 1500 days from the birth of this blog (January 1, 2013). And hey look, I’ve since retired!

Investments only (primary home excluded)
1/1/13 (The Start): $586,043
1/1/14 (1 Yr Later): $869,635
1/1/15 (2 Yrs Later): $987,351
1/1/16 (3 Yrs Later): $1,057,961
1/1/17 (4 Yrs Later): $1,257,128
1/1/18 (5 Yrs Later): $1,527,701
1/1/19 (6 Yrs Later): $1,549,440
1/1/20 (7 Yrs Later): $2,035,040*
1/1/21 (8 Yrs Later): $3,379,746**
1/1/22 (9 Yrs Later): $4,762,642
1/1/23 (10 Yrs Later): $3,112,821

2023: Investments only
1/1: $3,112,821

Overall
2023 investment gains: $0
Investment gains since 1/1/2013: $2,526,778
Net worth***: $3,342,821

* The big jump between 2019 and 2020 was partly because we bought another home, but kept the previous (much more expensive) one as a rental. We have since sold it.

** Tesla.

*** Includes our primary home equity in addition to our investment portfolio.

Finally, we still have about $290,000 in mortgage debt (which I love!). No regrets about the debts!

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Disclaimer

Investing is risky business. The information contained on this site is for informational purposes only. As with all matters financial, proceed with caution. Do your research and seek professional advice.

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