My main goal* was to build an investment and cash portfolio of $1,120,000* ($1,000,000 to retire on and $120,000 to pay off the house) in 1500 days**, starting from 1/1/2013 and ending in February of 2017. I made my goal in 2016, my 1500 Days are over, and I’ve left my job. In the interest of openness, I’ll continue to share my numbers.
What a difference 5 months makes. Back in January, the S&P 500 crested 4,800. As I type this now, it’s below 4,000. The year-to-date chart looks like the fun part of a roller coaster. It’s less fun when it’s a market chart:
Zoom Out
However, when you zoom out, the chart tells a different story. Here is what the past year looks like:
This chart above isn’t as scary as the first one. The first 8 months or so go mostly up.
Let’s continue this thought exercise by zooming out 5 years:
Now, we see that the current drop is even less scary. Sure, it isn’t fun. But when viewed in the perspective of the prior increases, it’s diminished.
And this is what you have to put up with if you’re a long-term investor. Most of the time, markets go up. But not all of the time. However, if you believe that productivity (one of the main drivers of economic expansion) will continue to increase and that the world is getting better, you have nothing to worry about. Eventually inflation will calm down and the war will end. Mr. Market will rejoice and continue the upward march. If you’re a long-term investor, you must also be an optimist.
Awful April
Astute readers may have noticed that I skipped the March Performance Update. This wasn’t intentional; life just got busy. However, you don’t need to look any further than the right column on the blog homepage to see my numbers. If you don’t want to do that, here they are:
March was great! We were up $285,554. But then April kicked us down $492,146. Oof! Mr. Market wasn’t happy and my tech-heavy portfolio got hit extra hard.

2021 (as of 5/1/2022)
- Days elapsed: 120
- Net worth gains (actually losses): –$755,166
Since the Start of The Experiment (1/1/2013)
- Days elapsed: 3408
- Net worth gains: $3,501,433
5 Years
I’ve been done with formal work now for a little over 5 years and I’ve been so damn fortunate. The S&P 500 was at about 2,300 when I left. The market has been on a tear. Don’t forget that sequence of returns works both ways! Mindy also chose to go back to work at about the same time that I left. Her work gives her joy, so she stays. One of the best parts of having money is it frees you from having to think about money.
Life is good.
More 1500 Days!!!
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*My goal wasn’t to have $1,120,000 at the end of 1500 days, but at any time before the day count was up. Why? It all goes back to the 4% Rule. Remember that our little friend, Mr. 4%, is nothing more than the most conservative safe withdrawal rate. Since my investment portfolio now sits at $1,550,000, I can spend about $62,000 in my first year of retirement.
**My original goal was $1,000,000 and no debt, I later raised the goal by $120,000 to $1,120,000 because I will have debt in the form of a mortgage and I firmly believe in not paying it off (LOOK at the MONEY I’m MAKING!). My compromise was to have enough money put away to cover the mortgage at the time of retirement.
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A market correction is a good thing. Investing shouldn’t have been so easy, and a reminder of why we like index funds for our general wealth preservation.
It would be great to have decent cash to keep investing – but as you say the S&P hasn’t dropped particularly much yet. I’m looking to add each month now that shares are providing more value again each month. It’s great to be doing something we enjoy and to be investing =)
Our net worth has dropped back into six figures for the first time in almost a year. But after learning through 2007-2009, and wholly grateful for a two-income household with stable jobs and good health, I’m almost giddy about shoveling money into ESGV with each paycheck. This is the bit where I appreciate FIRE bloggers telling me to get my head right for the last six years!
“I’m almost giddy about shoveling money into ESGV with each paycheck.”
Nice! I’ve put a bunch into VTSAX, QQQ, and even a little into TSLA. Downturns == opportunity!
Very true we have to be optimistic and trust in index investing. I have no problem being a diamond hand investor and never sell, but in 2000 and in 2008 I held on to a number of individual stocks that went to zero. I am now a 100% index investor and am optimistic that the self-cleaning action the index will prevent a repeat of that happening again. In the long run I should be getting average returns which is above average for many investors.
Thanks for keeping it optimistic and encouraging us to zoom out and look at the long term bigger picture.
Hey Tech! Yeah, I think were in much better shape than 2000 (Pets.com or CMGI anyone?). Also, I don’t think the current situation is anywhere near as bad as 2008. But even if it was, the world would move on and the markets would go up.
Yikes! It’s not a great month but for those who are still working and investing, it’s a great opportunity to buy more. Zooming out the of stock market makes a lot of sense.
Yep!
The fun continues! Don’t worry Carl, you are in a much, much better spot than many, and luckily your good nature will take this in stride. Think about how good you have it with cost basis! Enjoy watching from the sidelines.
Yeah, I’m very thankful and life is great. These hiccups don’t bother me at all.
Just under the net worth chart it says “2021 (as of 5/1/2022)”. I think that the “2021” is meant to be “2022”.
Correct! Thank you for pointing this out!