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Performance Update, April 2022: Zoom Out

May 9, 2022 by Mr. 1500 Days 11 Comments

My main goal* was to build an investment and cash portfolio of $1,120,000* ($1,000,000 to retire on and $120,000 to pay off the house) in 1500 days**, starting from 1/1/2013 and ending in February of 2017. I made my goal in 2016, my 1500 Days are over, and I’ve left my job. In the interest of openness, I’ll continue to share my numbers.

What a difference 5 months makes. Back in January, the S&P 500 crested 4,800. As I type this now, it’s below 4,000. The year-to-date chart looks like the fun part of a roller coaster. It’s less fun when it’s a market chart:

Zoom Out

However, when you zoom out, the chart tells a different story. Here is what the past year looks like:

This chart above isn’t as scary as the first one. The first 8 months or so go mostly up.

Let’s continue this thought exercise by zooming out 5 years:

Now, we see that the current drop is even less scary. Sure, it isn’t fun. But when viewed in the perspective of the prior increases, it’s diminished.

And this is what you have to put up with if you’re a long-term investor. Most of the time, markets go up. But not all of the time. However, if you believe that productivity (one of the main drivers of economic expansion) will continue to increase and that the world is getting better, you have nothing to worry about. Eventually inflation will calm down and the war will end. Mr. Market will rejoice and continue the upward march. If you’re a long-term investor, you must also be an optimist.

Awful April

Astute readers may have noticed that I skipped the March Performance Update. This wasn’t intentional; life just got busy. However, you don’t need to look any further than the right column on the blog homepage to see my numbers. If you don’t want to do that, here they are:

March was great! We were up $285,554. But then April kicked us down $492,146. Oof! Mr. Market wasn’t happy and my tech-heavy portfolio got hit extra hard.

Another ugly roller coaster! Chart from Personal Capital***

2021 (as of 5/1/2022)

  • Days elapsed: 120
  • Net worth gains (actually losses): –$755,166

Since the Start of The Experiment (1/1/2013)

  • Days elapsed: 3408
  • Net worth gains: $3,501,433

5 Years

I’ve been done with formal work now for a little over 5 years and I’ve been so damn fortunate. The S&P 500 was at about 2,300 when I left. The market has been on a tear. Don’t forget that sequence of returns works both ways! Mindy also chose to go back to work at about the same time that I left. Her work gives her joy, so she stays. One of the best parts of having money is it frees you from having to think about money.

Life is good.

Hanging out in super windy Las Vegas

More 1500 Days!!!

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*My goal wasn’t to have $1,120,000 at the end of 1500 days, but at any time before the day count was up. Why? It all goes back to the 4% Rule. Remember that our little friend, Mr. 4%, is nothing more than the most conservative safe withdrawal rate. Since my investment portfolio now sits at $1,550,000, I can spend about $62,000 in my first year of retirement.

**My original goal was $1,000,000 and no debt, I later raised the goal by $120,000 to $1,120,000 because I will have debt in the form of a mortgage and I firmly believe in not paying it off (LOOK at the MONEY I’m MAKING!). My compromise was to have enough money put away to cover the mortgage at the time of retirement.

***This is an affiliate link. If you sign up, the blog (me) makes some cold, hard, beautiful, cash. Personal Capital is a totally free and awesome way to keep watch over your investments. It’s worth it for the fee analyzer alone. I would never recommend anything that I don’t personally use and completely believe in, so give it a try. If you’ve already signed up through the link, please know that you are a fine person of above-average intelligence.

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Filed Under: Financial Independence, Performance Tagged With: Las Vegas, performance update, stock market

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. charlie @ doginvestor.com says

    May 11, 2022 at 3:07 am

    A market correction is a good thing. Investing shouldn’t have been so easy, and a reminder of why we like index funds for our general wealth preservation.

    It would be great to have decent cash to keep investing – but as you say the S&P hasn’t dropped particularly much yet. I’m looking to add each month now that shares are providing more value again each month. It’s great to be doing something we enjoy and to be investing =)

    Reply
  2. Adam says

    May 11, 2022 at 8:18 am

    Our net worth has dropped back into six figures for the first time in almost a year. But after learning through 2007-2009, and wholly grateful for a two-income household with stable jobs and good health, I’m almost giddy about shoveling money into ESGV with each paycheck. This is the bit where I appreciate FIRE bloggers telling me to get my head right for the last six years!

    Reply
    • Mr. 1500 Days says

      May 15, 2022 at 10:51 am

      “I’m almost giddy about shoveling money into ESGV with each paycheck.”

      Nice! I’ve put a bunch into VTSAX, QQQ, and even a little into TSLA. Downturns == opportunity!

      Reply
  3. Tech says

    May 11, 2022 at 12:41 pm

    Very true we have to be optimistic and trust in index investing. I have no problem being a diamond hand investor and never sell, but in 2000 and in 2008 I held on to a number of individual stocks that went to zero. I am now a 100% index investor and am optimistic that the self-cleaning action the index will prevent a repeat of that happening again. In the long run I should be getting average returns which is above average for many investors.

    Thanks for keeping it optimistic and encouraging us to zoom out and look at the long term bigger picture.

    Reply
    • Mr. 1500 Days says

      May 15, 2022 at 10:49 am

      Hey Tech! Yeah, I think were in much better shape than 2000 (Pets.com or CMGI anyone?). Also, I don’t think the current situation is anywhere near as bad as 2008. But even if it was, the world would move on and the markets would go up.

      Reply
  4. MindspeaksFi says

    May 11, 2022 at 1:44 pm

    Yikes! It’s not a great month but for those who are still working and investing, it’s a great opportunity to buy more. Zooming out the of stock market makes a lot of sense.

    Reply
    • Mr. 1500 Days says

      May 15, 2022 at 10:47 am

      Yep!

      Reply
  5. Gary Grewal says

    May 12, 2022 at 11:46 am

    The fun continues! Don’t worry Carl, you are in a much, much better spot than many, and luckily your good nature will take this in stride. Think about how good you have it with cost basis! Enjoy watching from the sidelines.

    Reply
    • Mr. 1500 Days says

      May 15, 2022 at 10:42 am

      Yeah, I’m very thankful and life is great. These hiccups don’t bother me at all.

      Reply
  6. Robert says

    May 20, 2022 at 2:21 pm

    Just under the net worth chart it says “2021 (as of 5/1/2022)”. I think that the “2021” is meant to be “2022”.

    Reply
    • Mr. 1500 Days says

      May 22, 2022 at 7:13 am

      Correct! Thank you for pointing this out!

      Reply

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Freedom!

My goal was to build a portfolio of $1,000,000 by February of 2017; 1500 days from the birth of this blog (January 1, 2013). And hey look, I’ve since retired!

Investments only
1/1/13 (The Start): $586,043
1/1/14 (1 Yr Later): $869,635
1/1/15 (2 Yrs Later): $987,351
1/1/16 (3 Yrs Later): $1,057,961
1/1/17 (4 Yrs Later): $1,257,128
1/1/18 (5 Yrs Later): $1,527,701
1/1/19 (6 Yrs Later): $1,549,440
1/1/20 (7 Yrs Later): $2,035,040*
1/1/21 (8 Yrs Later): $3,379,746**
1/1/22 (9 Yrs Later): $4,762,642

2022: Investments only
1/1: $4,762,642
2/1: $4,404,447
3/1: $4,214,068
4/1: $4,499,622
5/1: $4,007,476

Overall
2022 investment gains: -$755,166
Investment gains since 1/1/2013: $3,421,433
Net worth***: $4,237,476

* The big jump between 2019 and 2020 was partly because we bought another home, but kept the previous (much more expensive) one as a rental. We have since sold it.

** Tesla.

*** Includes our primary home equity in addition to our investment portfolio.

Finally, we still have about $290,000 in mortgage debt (which I love!). No regrets about the debts!

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Disclaimer

Investing is risky business. The information contained on this site is for informational purposes only. As with all matters financial, proceed with caution. Do your research and seek professional advice.

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