Performance Update, January 2022: Inflation Devaluation (-$358,195)!

My main goal* was to build an investment and cash portfolio of $1,120,000* ($1,000,000 to retire on and $120,000 to pay off the house) in 1500 days**, starting from 1/1/2013 and ending in February of 2017. I made my goal in 2016, my 1500 Days are over, and I’ve left my job. In the interest of openness, I’ll continue to share my numbers.

Inflation Devaluation, Tesla Broke Ya’

I buy mostly index funds now, but before that, I bought stocks. Because I’m a tech nerd, my stock portfolio is overrepresented by high-growth, tech companies. (see all of my holdings here)

In times of low inflation, growth stocks tend to do better. Value stocks tend to do better when inflation runs hot. In January, my growth-oriented portfolio got hit hard as the world got all in a tizzy over inflation.

And then there is Tesla. my biggest holding. Elon Musk promised a product roadmap on the January earnings call. Instead, he stated that Tesla is delaying the development of new vehicles to focus on producing existing ones. Musk also talked up the Tesla bot and FSD (autonomous driving). The markets were not impressed. Tesla will probably have a very good year selling lots of high-margin vehicles, but the bot is years off and Musk has been promising FSD since 2015.

Tesla/ FSD/ nerd note: Tesla doesn’t release statistics about FSD progress, but this guy informally does. I don’t see data that tells me FSD is improving at the rate it needs to improve to be done this year as Musk has claimed. Actually, I don’t see much improvement at all. Until I do, I’ll continue to be deeply skeptical.

I’m still bullish on Tesla, so continue to hold the stock. The world is moving to electric vehicles and Tesla is the clear leader. I plan to pull the trigger on purchasing a Model Y and because I like silly goals, I’ll place my order when the stock price closes at or above $1,500. You heard it here first! Note: $TSLA sits at $923, down from its all-time high of $1,229 in November of 2021.

January Performance

Our net worth started the month $4,992,642 at and ended at $4,634,447 for a loss of $358,195:

And it’s even worse than it seems. Our net worth briefly topped $5,200,000 in early November, so we’re down about $600,000 from all-time highs.

2021 (as of 1/31/2022)

• Days elapsed: 31
• Net worth gains: –$358,195

Since the Start (1/1/2013)

• Days elapsed: 3317
• Net worth gains: $3,898,404

Whatever…

None of this bothers me in the slightest. Markets go up, markets go down. As long as they go up a little bit more than they go down over the long-term, the index funds will be fine.

Regarding non-index investments, I don’t buy stocks, I buy companies. As long as I still believe in the businesses of Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla, I’ll hold the stocks. Often, a stock price doesn’t accurately reflect the future potential or even the current state of the business it represents, but over the long-term, it all balances out.

More 1500 Days!!!

You can also find me (and the dinosaurs) at:

Mile High FI podcast:

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Also here:

• Facebook: Facebook group and page
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• Instagram: Pretty pictures of dinosaurs, sunsets, and nail guns!
• Twitter: Spontaneous, often insane, ramblings
• Coworking space: On the surface, MMM HQ is a coworking space. Look a little deeper and you’ll see that we’re really building community. The members of MMM HQ are some of the finest people I know.

*My goal wasn’t to have $1,120,000 at the end of 1500 days, but at any time before the day count was up. Why? It all goes back to the 4% Rule. Remember that our little friend, Mr. 4%, is nothing more than the most conservative safe withdrawal rate. Since my investment portfolio now sits at $1,550,000, I can spend about $62,000 in my first year of retirement.

**My original goal was $1,000,000 and no debt, I later raised the goal by $120,000 to $1,120,000 because I will have debt in the form of a mortgage and I firmly believe in not paying it off (LOOK at the MONEY I’m MAKING!). My compromise was to have enough money put away to cover the mortgage at the time of retirement.

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