I wrote this post mostly for myself. Writing about stuff helps me think through it. Don’t take any of this as investment advice. You’d be silly to listen to a grown human who plays with plastic dinosaurs anyway. Do your own research!
Sometimes you get lucky.
I bought some Tesla stock back in 2012 on a whim. Here was my reasoning:
I liked the Model S and admired Elon Musk.
No in-depth stock analysis here; just investments made off the cuff because I had a little extra cash in my account.
However, sometimes you get lucky. In this case, I got really lucky. I followed up my initial investment with more shares. Here are most of them:
The shares I purchased in 2012 for a split-adjusted $5.7994 are up 19,108%. Yowsers. And a lot of the appreciation happened in the past month:
Where do I go from here?
How Do You Value A Growth Company?
In the case of a growth company like Tesla, the stock price is usually a poor reflection of the business. You aren’t buying the stock for the profit that the company is generating now, but for what you expect it to generate in 10 years.
Consider Amazon which had a P/E ratio of over 3,000 back in 2012. Despite the P/E now being in the 50s, the stock has gone from $200 to $3,300.
So:
Tesla stock is expensive for what the current business does. However, the stock is cheap if Tesla accomplishes what it has planned. Since I can’t predict how the stock price will reflect the business in the short term, I hold on for the long term.
Betting on Tesla is betting on this vision of the future:
- The world is moving away from energy generated by hydrocarbons in favor of renewables. This applies not just to cars, but the electrical grid.
- The main problem with wind and solar energy generation is that sometimes there is no wind or sun.
- Battery storage will help smooth out power generation and will play a huge role in the future of energy.
I believe in Tesla because:
- It has a huge lead in electric cars and with innovations like 4680 dry-electrode battery production and megacasting, the gap is growing.
- It has the largest charging network and continues to aggressively grow it. It is also opening up to other cars. It’s like if Ford or GM also owned the oil companies and gas stations.
- Its energy business (residential and grid level energy production and storage) is tiny, but I believe it will eclipse the auto business someday.
I don’t think of Tesla as an auto company, but an energy storage company that happens to sell cars as part of its business.
There is execution risk:
- Someone could come out with solid-state battery tech with twice the mileage at half the cost.
- A nimble Chinese competitor could outmaneuver Tesla.
- Scientists could finally figure out nuclear fusion which would make energy mostly free and batteries lose relevance.
- Waymo (Google subsidiary) could solve Level-5 autonomy, rendering auto ownership mostly moot.
I think that the last one is the most likely, but I hold Google stock as well, so I’m hedged.
Luck
Again, I have to acknowledge that I got very lucky. I bought the stock for fun and I never thought it would do this. Perhaps the best evidence is the Warren Buffett bet that I have with Dividend Growth Investor (DGI). DGI asked this:
Could I beat the S&P 500 over a 10 year period with a stock portfolio?
I agreed to take the bet and didn’t pick Tesla. While I bought $TSLA in 2012, apparently I didn’t believe in it in 2017 when the bet started because I didn’t include it in my “Beat Buffett” portfolio.
Note: If you’re curious to see how I’m doing, I’m beating the S&P 500 by about 30%:
Back to Tesla.
Despite the crazy stock price, Tesla has mostly disappointed me in 2021:
- Dojo, Tesla’s AI training supercomputer was supposed to be out this year and is now delayed until 2022.
- The Berlin factory is delayed at least 6 months.
- Cybertruck and Hardware 4.0 were supposed to be out at the end of 2021. They are both delayed until the end of 2022 at the earliest. I think it will actually be 2023.
- And then there is autonomy:
I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.
-Elon Musk (7/9/2020)
Delays aside, I also continue to be disappointed in Tesla’s build quality. Get the body gaps consistent or at least fix them before shipment.
But, Tesla is also doing a lot of things right, especially in an environment of supply chain difficulties.
I’m Holding, But…
I’m holding my shares for the long-term. I believe that the world will look a lot different in 2030 as electric cars take over and the world pivots hard to green energy. Tesla stands to benefit most from this change.
But, I’m a big believer in index funds now. Before Tesla’s October run-up, VTSAX and VTI were my biggest holdings. Two of our syndication deals are about to sell. When they do and the $200,000 hits our bank account, I’ll immediately put the money into VTSAX.
But, I’m also thankful to have held on to $TSLA.
Sometimes you get lucky.
More 1500 Days!!!
You can also find me (and the dinosaurs) at:
Mile High FI podcast:
Also here:
- EconoMe: Hey look, I’m speaking at EconoMe later this year!
- Facebook: Facebook group and page
- YouTube: My channel is mostly devoted to home improvement, but I have some other material coming up soon too.
- Instagram: Pretty pictures of dinosaurs, sunsets, and nail guns!
- Twitter: Spontaneous, often insane, ramblings
- Coworking space: On the surface, MMM HQ is a coworking space. Look a little deeper and you’ll see that we’re really building community. The members of MMM HQ are some of the finest people I know.
Other resources I like:
- Camp FIs are amazingly fun! I hope to attend Rocky Mountain and Joshua Tree this year. See you there?
- Need to learn how to invest? The Simple Path to Wealth is all you need.
- New to FIRE? Need some FIREy guidance? Check out Fiology and the accompanying workbook!
Join the 10s who have signed up already!
Subscribing will improve your life in incredible ways*.
*Only if your life is pretty bad to begin with.
Tesla share price fascinates me, since we have so little exposure to the company in South Africa. In fact we just got our first ever tesla imported here recently, someone brought over a model X. Due to import costs/taxes it came to around a price point of $250k versus the $130k for the vehicle. Yes our government charges taxes for electric vehicles + luxury products+ import tax so it was 90% more expensive. This is in a country with a gdp/capita of around $5-8k per annum. The price of Teslas are quite out of reach in any case for the majority here and hence why the share price movements are fascinating.
So we really see very little of Tesla here, but it would be great to have more electric vehicles in the world. Looking forward to seeing how this all plays out.
Before mid-decade, Tesla will produce a cheaper car. And this is the one that I think will change the game for most. Electric cars are already much cheaper to fuel (in most places) and maintain (barely any parts). Once the purchase price is lower than an internal combustion counterpart, why buy anything else?
I’m doing well on my Tesla purchase on a whim too. Loving the ride.
What a ride it’s been, but I’m even more excited about the rest of the decade.
I’m hitting FI 5-10 years earlier than planned because of swapping from index’s to individual stocks (the biggest starting position being Tesla) a few years back.
Very grateful at the good fortune. Planning on keeping the whole portfolio into FI, wish me luck.
Just be careful there. You never know when a juggernaut is going to get disrupted and relegated to history’s obsolete pile. Looking at you Nokia and RIM!
I own a ton of facebook and I think about this frequently.
Wow, Telsa is kicking ass!
In September I loss value in my stache (100% index holdings) this is normal for the market to have ups and downs. My stache is just getting back to it’s high in August, but with Telsa you managed to recover and surpass that temporary dip so much quicker than if you just held the index.
They say risk is rewarded. While VTI (which has Telsa in it) it lowers the risk by being diversified. Holding Telsa as an individual stock shows you were well rewarded for your risk.
I have bad luck at picking winners and I can guarantee you if I were to buy Telsa stock today it would fall like a rock. Don’t worry I will stick to just buying index funds so you should have no problems holding on to Telsa.
I see you reaching 5 million very shortly. Congrats you are winning this money game.
Sounds like you’re doing the right thing! Stocks are very tempting…
Congratulations. I can’t imagine just having one MILLION dollars in a single stock… let alone have a million dollars… *cries in poor*.
David @ Filled With Money recently posted…Your Past Doesn’t Define You, Only You do
Congrats! I think that’s all that can be said here. Sometimes you win the lottery (in this case the stock lottery). I don’t think anyone could have predicted that your $3,624.63 invested in 2012 would turn into $692k dollars!!!
Well, if you did predict it, I’d like to know how!! 😉
Congrats again! I think you beat the market!
Mr. Tako recently posted…Is The Economy Telling Me To Sell My Stocks?
I don’t worry about Tesla, the company, at all. Elon, IMO, is still the key. If he were to leave the company (death, removed/retired, etc…) that would be a huge problem. Most people would probably point out that Jobs died and yet Apple is still doing just fine but IMO the companies are at wildly different stages and the team Jobs had behind him was ready(ish).
But hey, I’m just spitballing and love the stock too:)
Truth. Apple was way more mature when Jobs died. If Elon weren’t around for the Model 3 launch, I’ll bet Tesla would be gone.
I’d guess we still need him around for the first half of the decade to get Tesla to a really good spot. There is still a metric shit-ton of work that needs to be done.
The other thing is that his cult of personality causes people to want to work for/buy Teslas too, just like Steve Jobs. You can’t replace that ever.
Congrats on your good fortune.
Tesla value might be under pressure for the next half year:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/majority-saying-yes-after-elon-musk-asks-twitter-if-he-should-sell-10-his-tesla-stock?
And might make some investors nervous when Musk decides to reduce his Tesla stake.
Yeah, I’m not concerned about short-term stock price. If the business is successful, the stock price will eventually follow.
Nice investment.
I did that same thing as you – also. I test drove a Tesla several years ago and liked it so much, I bought some shares. Back then, the price was super volatile (not that it isn’t now) and when the price doubled, I sold half my shares to get my original investment back. Wish I held on to those. I’d easily be worth one million more than I am now. FYI, I now own 2 Teslas and agree with you – Tesla is not just a car company.
As for Bob’s comment above – Elon actually increased his ownership, even after selling off stock. He needed the money to exercise more stock options that were expiring, so he sold some shares to buy more.
I blogged about my quest to get my Teslas (and other FI stuff) at my blog Road To A Tesla.
Shaun recently posted…2 Year Post-Finale Follow Up
Whoah, I just looked at your blog and see you have two Teslas including a Model S. I will have one someday, oh yes I will!
I’m holding my shares long-term. With the information I have now, 2025 is the earliest I’d consider selling anything, but it will probably be more like 2030.
I think that the big risk to Tesla is that someone gets to autonomy before them. Tesla fanboys like to make fun of Waymo, but I think they’re farther along than most think.