When I started this blog way back in January of 2013, I was transparent with investments. I thought it was silly to share my journey to financial independence without sharing the obvious metric, net worth. I love playing with numbers, so writing these updates was enjoyable. I’ve decided to stop them now though for two reasons.
1. I’m no longer relatable.
My investments have done very well. Before I knew what an index fund was, I picked individual stocks. And because I’m a nerdy techy, I happened to pick the ones that have done really well. I’ve owned Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Tesla for years. I’ve outperformed the indices by a large margin. Was it luck or smarts? Probably mostly the former; I was interested in the right things at the right time. But being an average human who got very lucky isn’t a bad place to be. I won a very slow version of the lottery.
I also took some big swings by investing in SpaceX and Impulse Space. Those are doing great as well.
Side note: The cost of owning individual companies is that you feel like you have to pay attention to them. I spend too much time doing that. I’m slowly moving to index funds. Slowly…
2. I’m no longer anonymous.
I intended to always be anonymous, but then we were outed after a podcast we appeared on went viral. The podcast host begged for a photo and eventually I gave in, thinking nothing would come of it. And then this happened:
I didn’t think anyone read Yahoo! news. But it turned out that 99.99% of the people I know do in fact read it. We got a load of interesting text messages:
Dude, you have a million dollars? I saw you under the hood of your car last weekend!
Ummm. You dress the opposite of a millionaire.
Can I have some money?
Answers:
I’m wealthy because I work on my car.
Clothing? The only thing I care less about than fashion is the Earthworm Olympics.
No.
Oof. The bigger out net worth grew, the less comfortable I felt sharing it.
And while most humans are good, the ones that aren’t ruin it for everyone else. There are some wackos out there.
But I still want to talk about money. So I’ll post here from time to time about what I’m doing. Just no more specific numbers.
72(t) Madness!
The hopeless optimizer in me always wanted to get the most out of my investments and minimize taxes. 401(k)s were always the first place I put money. Late in my career, I would become a contractor and I took saving to the next level with a self-directed solo 410(k). I put exotic investments into these accounts including the two private companies I already mentioned. So now, Mindy and I find ourselves with outsized 401(k) balances. The solution is to execute a 72(t) to get at the money before we’re old and crusty. I have found:
- 72(t)s are still exotic. You will find little help executing one from your broker.
- I’m at Vanguard and executing this from a rollover IRA. I did find someone at Vanguard who was helpful, but it took a looooong time.
- You don’t want to mess it up. There are nasty penalties if you screw up your calculations.
- Gemini, Google’s AI assistant, was very helpful with the research. To be clear, don’t trust everything AI tells you. I double and triple checked everything Gemini told me. On the flip-side, I used Gemini to double-check everything I had discovered. Gemini knew more about how to execute a 72(t) at Vanguard than most of the people at Vanguard.
The account I will execute the 72(t) against has about $1,000,000. My annual 72(t) withdrawal will be around $60,000.
F.O.O.L.I.S.H. Funding: Buy, Borrow, Die With A Couple Stock Sales
I have been using a simple version of the Buy Borrow Die strategy to fund our F.O.O.L.I.S.H. Project. Here is how our version works:
- First, you need investments in a standard brokerage account. The bigger your number, the better! This doesn’t work from a 401(k) or Roth account. Note that MMM-Pete wrote about this type of borrowing here.
- Borrow money against the account. At Robinhood, I’m borrowing at 4.5%, much less than a construction loan or mortgage. It’s also much less hassle. Be very conservative. You don’t want a margin call. Also, the rate is variable, so be prepared!
- I’ll pay some of the money back with proceeds from our home sale this summer.
- In the years to come, I’ll slowly sell off stocks to pay down the loan.
This strategy punts the tax bill down the road and also minimizes the total amount of taxes we’ll have to pay.
But I’ve also sold Tesla shares to help pay for the project (note that this is in violation of my own strategy).
Tesla Troubles?
!!Nerd Alert!! If you don’t care about Tesla’s autonomous driving efforts, please skip to the next section.
I bought a Tesla Model Y back in 2023 mostly to keep track of FSD (vehicle autonomy). I had a lot of Tesla stock and since Elon had bet the company on a robotaxi network, I wanted to pay close attention to FSD progress.
Back then, FSD was terrifying. The car would accelerate towards humans and execute dangerous maneuvers regularly. Today, it works much better. I engage it in Costco parking lots on Saturday afternoons without hesitation. I NEVER would have done that two years ago. In the past 6,000 miles, I’ve had to intervene once.
As good as FSD is, it’s not good enough to work without a human behind the wheel, ready to take over. If the car loses its little mind only once every 6,000 miles, this is an incredible technological achievement. However, it also has to be much better to function without a safety drive.
I believe that consumer vehicles with the current version of the FSD software (14) and hardware (4) will never be able to operate autonomously. The compute is maxed out. There aren’t camera cleaners. There are no anti-glare measures for the front facing camera. Note that the few robotaxis that Tesla operates have these features.
Tesla will eventually solve autonomy, probably with version 15 of the software (arrives in 2027) and version 5 of the FSD hardware (arrives in 2028). The new hardware will have more computing power, upgraded cameras, and most likely, some of the other features that are already appearing in Tesla’s robotaxis. So Tesla’s large scale robotaxi story gets pushed back until at least 2028.
I wouldn’t worry about Tesla’s slow progress if it weren’t for Waymo. Waymo is currently doing over 70,000 rides per day. When will Tesla’s robotaxi fleet match that? And when it does, where will Waymo be? Waymo is a subsidiary of Google. I would not want to compete with Google.
Tesla has a lot going for it including a best selling car, an extensive charging network and energy storage products. However, the current sky-high valuation only makes sense if you think Tesla succeeds in its robotaxi efforts. The question that I’d love to know the answer to is this:
If Tesla doesn’t get a big robotaxi network (10,000+ cars without a human safety monitor) going until 2029, is the company cooked?
I have no idea.
Going Quickly To Go Slow
Our house is almost done. After that, I’ll be officially done with home construction projects for a while. I’ve been working on houses almost continuously since 1998. Back then, I didn’t know how to do much of anything. Now, I’ve remodeled loads of kitchens and bathrooms, built a fancy deck and pergola, installed solar panels on two houses, replaced windows, finished a basement, installed an ERV, and designed/installed a 5-zone heated floor system. It’s time to take a break. I’ve been moving fast for a long time. Instead of swinging the hammer, it will be fun to get back into music and learning Spanish. And even just doing nothing.
One More California Adventure
Next week, I’ll head to California to pick up Older Daughter from college. We’ll drive up the coast from San Diego to San Francisco before heading to Yosemite. After that, we’ll stop in Jackson Wyoming.
I love road trips; peaceful alone time, listening to an audio book with an ever changing view.
If you have any suggestions for me or are around and would like to hang out, let me know!
Life is good.
More 1500 Days!!!
You can also find me (and the dinosaurs) at:
- YouTube: My channel is mostly devoted to home improvement, but I have some other material coming up soon too.
- Instagram: Pretty pictures of dinosaurs, sunsets, and nail guns!
- Twitter: Spontaneous, often insane, ramblings
- Coworking space: On the surface, MMM HQ is a coworking space. Look a little deeper and you’ll see that we’re really building community. The members of MMM HQ are some of the finest people I know
- Buying a Tesla? Use my referral code to get some perks!
Carl! I never see ur posts on the day they come out! If you’re looking for audiobook recommendations check out Inner Excellence (the book Antonio Brown was reading on the sidelines of an NFL game a couple years ago). One of his recommendations is to “ruthlessly eliminate hurry from your life” in chapter 8. I struggle slowing down and given your plan to lay off the housing projects and maybe slow down a bit, it may be of interest to you. The whole book is pretty good but that part definitely came to mind as I read this recent post.
Also-keep an eye on the birds on your road trip. I’m sure there are plenty along the coast and as you make your way back from the coast to Colorado. It’s also prime migrating season so lots of opportunities to see some rare ones. 🙂
Thank you for the book recommendation and for the bird tip. The book looks great. I’ll give it a listen on my way out.
Thank you both for being as transparent for as long as you were. Being a bit younger at the time, it was extremely helpful for us to see what was possible using you both as a real world example. Our own financial journey would have been much different if it wasn’t for your posts, thoughts, and ideas.
As a side note, to add to the 72(t) discussion, another excellent resource is 72tnet.com. It goes into significant detail about this section of the code, provides worksheets to setup your own plan, and calculators to confirm your own numbers.
Danny! How the heck are you? I hope life is treating you awesome.
And thanks for the kind comment. It was in you all along. Maybe I gave you a gentle nudge, but that’s probably it!
Thank you for the 72 recommendation. I haven’t actually pulled the trigger. And the more you know!
I wouldn’t know where to begin. This FI thing is wild haha! Life has changed a lot, but the core things have stayed the same. Like you always say…life is good. I hope life is treating your whole family great as well.
Will forever be thankful for the nudge when we were questioning, “What now?” when looking back at the personal finance space of the early 2010’s era.
If it makes you feel better, I haven’t pulled the trigger on the 72(t) either. For me, it’s more due to my age and quirky professional status, for now. On a general level, the 72(t) could be interesting choice for an older early retiree with a lot of pre-tax funds.
Thanks Mr. 1500 for all the posts and being open about your investments, I 100% agree it is a good idea to remove the over the top numbers. I think it is a good idea to limit the amount and type of information shared out in the public…. although I was hoping to see you break into 8 figures!
Over on the MMM forum there was a post about how much AI has data mined journals and what a quick AI query could expose about users that were using the site to tracking their NW and sharing details of their FIRE journey over the years. These tools have made putting information out in public that much more dangerous as you said there a few wackos and bad actors out there ruining it for everyone. I think the good ole days of us sharing stories with each other keeping our data in our own communities is gone.
Ha! I’ll send you an email when I hit 8 figures. It may be next month if SpaceX IPOs. It’s crazy to ponder.
Thanks for mentioning that bit on the MMM forums. It makes me feel better that I did it.
Hope to see you soon should you make it to Colorado.
As someone who also spends a lot of time doing home renovations, I get the readiness to be done with them. What if you get done with the new house and feel like doing another renovation? What if the renovations aren’t about making money and they are just your hobby? I don’t think it’s a good idea to kill yourself over renovations, but it is a fun hobby if you’re not rushing through it constantly.
I agree that it is a fun hobby and I won’t be selling my tools. Design and build is too much fun. However, it will be a while before I take something else on.
Congrats on all the progress Carl! I have thoroughly enjoyed reading all of your updates through the years. Being cautious about how much personal info is out there is so much more important now than it ever has been.
If you want a partner to practice speaking Spanish with, let me know.
And Happy Star Wars Day! May the Fourth Be With You.
I liked reading the net worth updates, but I understand why you’re no longer publishing them. There are a lot of weirdos.
I also feel like it’s potentially counterproductive for newbies who are just now learning about FIRE. The past decade has been a crazy bull market, and most of us FIRE folks who’ve been at this game for a long time are getting embarrassingly rich. Posting big numbers might discourage people who are just getting started!
Hey Carl, Would love to do a Tesla deep dive with you some time. I am more optimistic than you. Tesla seems to be rapidly growing the number of unsupervised robotaxis in Austin, Dallas and Houston. The confirmed number currents sits at 36. These vehicles are running HW4 and and some version of FSD software 14. I appreciate that Tesla is putting safety first and ramping slowly, but if Tesla can deploy 36 unsupervised robotaxis to take paid public customers, why couldn’t that be scaled to 3,600 by year’s end?
I also don’t think Tesla would have started mass production of the cybercab, including many without steering wheels if they didn’t think that had a viable path to putting these vehicles into service in the near terms (days/weeks and not months/years).
As for Waymo, I commend their efforts. They are safe for passengers, but their approach is fatally flawed. I would suggest reading some of these articles written by an ADAS engineer working for a legacy auto the past decade plus. I found them very insightful.
Justin! How are you? How is life out east?
Deep dive!: That would be great.
3,600: I hope you’re right, but I’d be really surprised if Tesla has over 1,000 unsupervised robotaxis by end of year. They haven’t even applied for the permit in California, the biggest market. This process could take years.
Someone on the earnings call stated that robotaxis are using specialized versions of 14.3. I believe Tesla is using localized NNs for specific locations to make FSD v14 passable. So they’re training specifically for certain regions.
As Elon stated on the call, robotaxi won’t go wide before v15. Elon also stated that v15 is an ‘end of 2026 or early 2027 story.’ So in reality, I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes mid to late 2027 release. Maybe they even hold out for AI5?
Cybercab: I’ve wondered about this too. Even if they only produce 50 a week, that’s far too many to be absorbed into the unsupervised fleet, at least right now. I believe that Cybercabs produced this year will be deployed with a safety driver and a steering wheel/pedals (or another kind of other control mechanism). Again, I really hope that I’m wrong.
Waymo: I’ve read some of the post by Genma. I’d guess that Waymo will shift to an approach more like Tesla’s. I think Waymo will retain LIDAR, but will rely more on AI (and less on HD maps). Also, why couldn’t Waymo have an AI layer that assigns weights to the different sensors to make decisions? For example, in perfect conditions, the car weighs camera data heavily.
I know someone who used to be a high-level employee at Waymo and they said that the biggest mistake was not embracing AI early on. But Waymo is full-in now.
Here is what Gemini had to say about the Tesla v15 situation:
Here are the key takeaways regarding FSD v15 and autonomy from the recent call:
The v15 Overhaul: Musk described FSD v15 as a “complete overhaul of the software architecture.” Because this new architecture is expected to bring a substantial increase in safety over the current v14 iterations, Tesla plans to hold off on broad, unsupervised deployment until v15 is fully trained and validated.
Timeline: The targeted arrival for v15 was framed as “hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year,” pushing the timeline for large-scale unsupervised autonomy into late 2026 or 2027.
I’m good Carl, thanks! We’re still settling into things here in PA, but enjoying aspects of country living. Learning lots every day on the farm.
I admittedly pulled the 3,600 number out of an orifice. However, I do think a two-order of magnitude increase by EOY from the current 36 unsupervised is not a stretch. I’m guessing our expectations are not that different. It all comes comes down to what you think Elon meant when he said V15 would be needed to go “large scale”. Knowing Elon and how far into the future his horizon extends, I suspect “large scale” means 10s or 100s of thousands. With that context, having 1,000 to 5,000 unsupervised robotaxis operating by year end does not conflict with his statement.
I still don’t believe Tesla would put Cybercab into mass production only to let them sit idle or to deploy them with supervisors for 6-months or more. Looking at the Tesla semi, which also just entered mass production, and how long and cautious a path Tesla took to its production launch, I don’t see Tesla being less deliberate with the cybercab.. There are also lots full of cycbercab-modified Model Ys being spotted in various cities in AZ, NV, TX, and FL and robotaxi-related job postings in these same states. All the anecdotal evidence points to a robotaxi ramp that is picking up steam, as opposed to a continued trickle.
As for Waymo, I don’t want to come off as anti Google or Waymo. There is room for two autonomous ride-hailing services in North America. I do think investors get too hung up on vehicle count and reaching the conclusion that Waymo is the leader in this space based on that metric alone. I’m hearing that Waymo’s losses are growing with and in proportion to the fleet size so far, Realistically, until Tesla, Waymo, or someone else manages to turn a profit in this space, it’s hard to say who is in the lead. I will say confidently, that if Waymo and Tesla both achieve reliability and safety far exceeding a human driver that Waymo will not be able to compete with Tesla on price per mile. Cybercabs are cheaper to produce and will be far cheaper to maintain. I don’t have the depth of knowledge to say if Waymo can pivot at this point away from HD mapping towards a more AI heavy approach, but I suspect that is not a quick or simple transition.
The question as to why Tesla hasn’t applied for a permit yet in CA is a good one. Is Tesla banking on the passage of federal legislation to open the CA market? While CA is hugely important, Tesla could scale to a hundreds of thousands of unsupervised robotaxis, if not a million before they’d miss not being able to deploy in CA.
Ok, really enjoying this, but feel I’ve hijacked your comment section more than enough.
Thanks for your contributions to the FIRE community!
“Ok, really enjoying this, but feel I’ve hijacked your comment section more than enough.”
No, this is great! I love the debate and really hope that I’m proven wrong.
I definitely think that Tesla will solve it and will do so before 2030. You’re just a little more optimistic than I am!
Here is what gives me hope: I have over 10,000 miles on FSD and I pay close attention to how it operates. It is not perfect, but the errors it makes are because of its NNs, not the cameras. So Tesla will eventually solve it with better NNs (more data and parameters) and a better inference processor. Regarding the latter, we already know from the last earnings call that there is an HW4.5 chip that doubles the memory.
Auto fatalities have been heading in the wrong direction. But I just read that 1/400 miles in the United States are driven by FSD. I’ll bet that within the next 10 years, we see this trend reverse as Waymo and Tesla expand.
https://x.com/nymbusjp/articles
Whoops, link here.
Great post! Are you still using the healthcare marketplace for insurance? Have you seen an increase in your premiums? That’s my biggest concern when considering retiring early.
We were on the ACA until a month ago. Now, Mindy has insurance through her podcast. We didn’t see any big increases though.
If the costs did get extreme, I’d sign up for a health care cost sharing company like Sedera.
Hello Carl –
Was looking forward to your next CA trip and wonderful to see you are coming this summer.
I’d love to meet you as missed seeing you last time around. My son is also graduating this summer so hopefully the dates are not the same when you visit.
Congratulations on the finishing up the home. that’s a wonderful accomplishment…. Doing nothing for a while is a beautiful thing.
Thanks.
Hitendra
Hey Mr 1500
Always been a big fan of the blog (thanks for still posting) and totally get removing the NW.
As our FIRE journeys grow (and our kids) I am interested if you have any posts planned about optimizing the college financial aid system much like the ACA. There have been some good posts on reddit about it as well.
https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/1czkot9/actual_fafsa_financial_aid_results_for_a_fired/
I am really happy to see that you posted again as I love all of the updates. You have really inspired me (on some of your what not to do’s) and I am looking at getting a guitar and starting lessons soon. I am coast FIRE and working on the spending so that I can look for a non-stressful job.
Hi Carl, I just wanted to say that I completely support your decision. Your blog and Podcasts (especially the Mindy on Money podcast 😉 — has been and still is a huge source of inspiration for me. You’ve always been one of the strongest and most genuine voices in the FIRE community for me. Notonly because of the numbers, but because you’re honest, thoughtful, and willing to talk about the harder parts too. As a fellow introvert, that has meant a lot. It’s something that often gets overlooked in this space.
I really hope you keep writing here. Your perspective still matters, and it continues to help people like me. And one day, I hope I can handle the stock market with the same calm confidence you do.
Thanks for everything you’ve shared so far.
Patrick