My main goal* was to build an investment and cash portfolio of $1,120,000* ($1,000,000 to retire on and $120,000 to pay off the house) in 1500 days**, starting from 1/1/2013 and ending in February of 2017. I made my goal in 2016, my 1500 Days are over, and I’ve left my job. In the interest of openness, I’ll continue to share my numbers. For now…
Whoah, what a difference a couple of months make. Our net worth peaked in February and since then, it’s been down, down, down. More on that in a moment…
Quarterly Updates
From here on out, I’m going to be providing quarterly performance updates instead of monthly. Here’s why:
- It’s tedious. I have to drag myself to the keyboard to write these posts. I like keeping track of the $$$$, but writing about it monthly is bor-ing.
- It’s never felt right. You should buy investments and then not pay attention to them. Writing about them monthly reinforces and promotes bad behavior.
- These updates are irrelevant. Long-term matters. Not gyrations. Especially now. I don’t really care about 1 week or 1 month from now. I really care about 10 years+.
For those who still like to keep track, I’ll continue to update my numbers on the sidebar monthly.
Performance: Q1 2025
Out net worth hit an all-time high of close to 7m earlier this year. Just a couple of months later we’re down close to $1,000,000. Oof!
Some of it is due to holding Tesla which was (and still is) frothy.
I try to consider everything that could to right or wrong with the stocks that I hold. However, the Trump-Musk Team is something that never crossed my mind. A true Black (Orange?) Swan event.
If Tesla solves autonomy soon, it may be OK. If not, there is plenty more room to fall.
I took a 2,500 road trip from Longmont, to Las Vegas, San Diego, and back to Longmont in my Model Y. I used Tesla’s autonomous software (FSD) for the entire trip and had to disengage three times. The first two were in rural Utah and the 3rd was in Las Vegas. It was incredibly impressive to see the Y navigate complex scenarios surrounded by aggressive drivers in southern California. It navigated San Diego rush hour perfectly. And it was equally unimpressive to see the car mess up two extremely simple scenarios in Utah.
Will Tesla actually pull off a robotaxi soon? I have no clue. Perhaps we’ll start to find out in June.
The markets haven’t been doing so hot either:
But short-term volatility and occasional downturns are the tradeoff we accept for long-term gains that outperform bonds and bank accounts. It’s all good. As long as you hold on.
Down, Down Down
Here are our net worth numbers, down $702,485 since the start of the year:
- 1/1: $6,460,794
- 2/1: $6,547,861
- 3/1: $6,129,518
- 4/1: $5,758,309
Zooming out, it’s just a blip:
Where does this all stop? Dunno.
What To Do?
We’re all in for some interesting times. Mr. Market doesn’t like uncertainty. The only thing I’m certain of is that there is a lot of uncertainty.
Times like this are what FI was built for. It’s fun to be able to travel and hike on a Monday afternoon. It’s vital to be able to sustain severe economic trauma like the loss of a job or 30% decline in your net worth and still have a roof above and food in front of you. Thank you FI.
As for us: Mindy makes enough money for us to mostly get by, so we’re OK. However, the Very Big Project that I alluded to here may be dead on arrival. I am OK taking a lot of risk with a portion of my investments. I’m not comfortable with spending a lot of money with so much uncertainty. We’ll need to make a decision in about 2 months and will reassess at that time. I’ll be a little sad if it doesn’t happen, but my life is great. Nothing to complain about over here.
Stay sane y’all!
More 1500 Days!!!
You can also find me (and the dinosaurs) at:
- BiggerPockets: Hey look, I’m on a podcast again: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DOFfBN7cxg
- YouTube: My channel is mostly devoted to home improvement, but I have some other material coming up soon too.
- Instagram: Pretty pictures of dinosaurs, sunsets, and nail guns!
- Twitter: Spontaneous, often insane, ramblings
- Coworking space: On the surface, MMM HQ is a coworking space. Look a little deeper and you’ll see that we’re really building community. The members of MMM HQ are some of the finest people I know
- Buying a Tesla? Use my referral code to get some perks!
*My goal wasn’t to have $1,120,000 at the end of 1500 days, but at any time before the day count was up. Why? It all goes back to the 4% Rule. Remember that our little friend, Mr. 4%, is nothing more than the most conservative safe withdrawal rate. Since my investment portfolio now sits at $1,550,000, I can spend about $62,000 in my first year of retirement.
**My original goal was $1,000,000 and no debt, I later raised the goal by $120,000 to $1,120,000 because I will have debt in the form of a mortgage and I firmly believe in not paying it off (LOOK at the MONEY I’m MAKING!). My compromise was to have enough money put away to cover the mortgage at the time of retirement.
***This is an affiliate link. If you sign up, the blog (me) makes some cold, hard, beautiful, cash. Personal Capital is a totally free and awesome way to keep watch over your investments. It’s worth it for the fee analyzer alone. I would never recommend anything that I don’t personally use and completely believe in, so give it a try. If you’ve already signed up through the link, please know that you are a fine person of above-average intelligence.
Ignoring the political noise, it seems like 30% of your NW is tied to the success of a single person, more than 50% if you look into stock. Are you planning to balance it, or are you comfortable with the existing distribution?
Ha, and what a person to be tied up with. I’m not to worried about SpaceX, but there is a chance that this is the beginning of the end of Tesla.
So yes, I’m going to rebalance. And it will be mostly index funds.
Mindy and I have $658,000 in private loans coming back this month and it’s all going into VTI and VOO. We have both because we have a weird umbrella account that both of our money is in, so separate funds help us keep our accounting straight.
It’s never a good idea to give one person or company this much power over your portfolio and i believe SpaceX would get hits just as hard if it was a public company.
Makes sense, thanks.
So what’s your thesis for Spacex? Looks like a relatively boring industry. Growth would mostly depend on future government spending that they are trying to trim. Customer base is somewhat limited for all existing businesses. Mars feasibility is questionable. I could see them growing in military services, but company might be a bit too risky for other countries to rely on..
Might be good to have a post about it, now that it’s your most invested company 🙂
“Growth would mostly depend on future government spending that they are trying to trim.”
Actually, the main reason to invest in SpaceX is Starlink. Worldwide internet access is a trillion dollar business. SpaceX goal is to own 5% of it, so $50,000,000,000/year. At 85% profit, that’s $35,000,000,000/year. So, a 20x multiple would put its valuation at $700,000,000,000. And then there are ancillary businesses like Starshield and cell phone connectivity.
The launch business: Once you drastically bring the price down on something, you increase the total addressable market. Starship, with reusability in both stages, should do just that.
Counterpoint: At 5,000,000 customers, Starlink is a long way off from capturing 5% of the market. And Starship is still in development.
So, check back in 2030 to see if I’m a hero or zero with this bet! 🙂
How about now? 🙂
Am I worried?
As of this morning, it seems like the megalomaniacs have decided to dial back the insults. Trump is vindictive and Elon is stubborn, so I’m sure we haven’t seen the end of it. With regard to these holdings:
SpaceX: The US needs SpaceX a lot more than SpaceX needs it. Sadly NASA will be gutted, but science experiments are a minority of SpaceX revenue. As I mentioned before, if you invest in SpaceX, it’s because of Starlink.
Tesla: It’s wildly overvalued as a car company, so it all comes down to the Robotaxi network. Trump could certainly hurt this by slowing down the implementation of a national regulatory framework.
Dunno. Everything is batshit crazy. The unknown unknowns are what bites you in the ass.
Mr. 1500 Days recently posted…Thought Exercises To Get Out Of Your Rut And Live Bigger
Thanks for sharing although I’m sure it wasn’t the most fun to write! Good perspective to show that you can take some hits with the wins
Nah, it’s all good. Volatility and occasional craziness is the price you pay for returns that beat bonds or a savings account.
Hi Carl,
I really enjoyed your pictures from Q1 on fb. Great pictures. I could not come to Econome or CampFi RM this year, hoping to meet you soon. There is not much going on at Dallas, TX. But if you come to meet me, I would be happy to host you.
I am really intrigued about FSD. I think 13.xx is much better than 12.6 on Hw3. Just 3 times on 2500 miles is amazing. I drove from Dallas to Baton Rogue, LA in Jan this year. I was more like 95% on FSD. It was bit hard for me because car was on middle lane with .5 miles to take the exit. I had to disengage most of the time to take exit.
How are you doing maintenance? Have you changed wiper blades, or cabin filters yet? Or any other things.
Keep writing, my friend.
The up’s and downs are normal and in the long run should just be a small blip on the chart. This “Orange Swan event” seems crazy and feels different, but so did Covid and the market bounced back from that.
On the self-driving robo taxis my opinion is they will have to add LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) devices to make them reliable enough.
P.S.
I would not let the market downturn cancel your “big” plans, you have enough $ and it’s really the time we have left on the planet that is likely going to run out sooner than our money!
Sorry if that sounds a little doom and gloom, but on our deathbeds having another million in the bank will not feel as worthwhile as enjoying the good years with family and friends or completing “big” plans.
Big plans: We were going to fund the Very Big Project (VBP) through our stock backed line of credit (LOC). The VBP will cost at least $700,000. Last month, that LOC was almost $1,200,000. After market close today, it will around $750,000. We have a HELOC ($107,000) on your main home as a backup plan, so it’s starting to get tight. Another, 20% drop and we start to get really squeezed.
The main holding in that portfolio is Tesla ($544,105). I think Tesla has a lot of longshot things going for it, but most revenue today is from auto sales. Mr. Market cares about today and as an auto company, if Tesla had GM’s PE, it would be $14/share (currently $240!).
I wish they would have done LIDAR. Musk worries about sensor collision issues, but that seems like an issue that the NNs would have been able to figure out.
While LIDAR would help, I’m not convinced Tesla needs it either. This is just based on my very small and biased observations of my car. I’m routinely surprised how well it does (and what it sees) with the cameras. We shall see! Hopefully soon.
Oh man, that’s rough. And down another 10-20% since this post right?
Hang in there. My portfolio is getting obliterated too.
Yep! And if the tariffs hold, we’re most likely in for a lot more downward action. Earnings season is upon us and those forward looking statements aren’t going to look so hot. Neither will earnings for the rest of the year.
But who the hell knows?!??
And for a reality check, look at Lee’s excellent comment.
I find it interesting that my fellow tech nerds are so against free speech and calling out the totalitarian and racist left for what they are, the new totalitarians and racists. When I was a kid it was the church ladies who were obnoxious in employing their religious zeal towards dictating to others, now it is the far left with their woke dictates and opposition to irreverance when it comes to DEI, pronouns, etc. I am not a big Trump fan but the alternative is far worse. South Africa treatment writ large for those of us who are not blessed with dark skin. Elon has played a pivotal role in ensuring our basic rights will not be trampled on. The only exception is abortion, which now is a states right issue.
Hey Carl,
I’m hoping to retire early in the next 1-2 years. I know that in you awakening post from 2013 you mentioned planning to invest about $24K per year. Did you greatly exceed that invested amount every year? Your portfolio growth has been impressive. I might only be able to contribute about that same amount going forward every year. Thank you for all your posts and podcasts. They’re an inspiration.
Yeah, we were able to buckle down and put a lot more away. But $24,000 is still pretty awesome. Just remember to enjoy the ride!